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Balancing past and present is key
By Ji Shun-jie 紀舜傑
Saturday, May 08, 2010, Page 8
The recent debate between President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on the issue of signing
an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China has led to a great
deal of discussion throughout society. Indeed, Ma’s Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)
would probably have advertised its surprise victory more widely had celebrations
not been cut short by a tragic landslide on Freeway No. 3 close to Keelung.
While the central focus of the Ma-Tsai debate was the ECFA, the key issue
underlying almost every talking point was how to deal with China. Will Taiwan
adopt an attitude of Taiwanization, Sinification or globalization when defining
itself and conducting relations with China? In determining an answer to that
question, we need to decide how to view China’s past, present and future.
Although the future is unpredictable, it can still be imagined, planned for and
realized. The science of future studies encourages people to develop foresight,
but it does not guarantee accuracy. While the power to predict future events may
seem unduly abstract, it is an integral part of everyday life, but most people
are not accustomed to applying this ability to issues of great importance or
matters that lie in the distant future.
People predict the future every day in a very natural way. For example, before
leaving home, we all make predictions about the weather and traffic. Only human
beings have the ability to simultaneously remember the past, be conscious of the
present and predict the future.
However, there are varying viewpoints about these three different ways of
viewing time. Some people get stuck in the past, while some make the most of the
present and others place all their hopes on the future. These different
perspectives lead to differences in cognition and individual opinions. The power
of the future is to be found in its ability to appropriately integrate these
three concepts of time.
We need to adopt a forward-looking attitude when dealing with China. Although
China’s rise to global prominence is a widely recognized geopolitical fact,
there are different opinions as to whether this will be peaceful. There are
those who say that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is totalitarian in nature,
that it detests democracy and that it will never change. These people believe
that as long as the CCP is in charge, China must be shunned, while some even say
that world peace can only be preserved by opposing China.
Such opinions are the logical result of taking the CCP’s past actions and
extending them into the future. The DPP is clearly suspicious of China, an
attitude largely based on past experience.
At the other end of the spectrum, there are people who view things totally in
terms of the future and therefore consider the DPP approach to be closed-minded.
Ma’s attitude is to look only at the future, paying no attention to events that
have happened in the past in China, and choosing to ignore extremist attitudes
China has demonstrated toward Taiwan and the rest of the world.
US psychologists Philip Zimbardo and John Boyd refer to such people as being
concerned with a “transcendental future.” They pursue a beautiful, imagined
future for which they plan. Such individuals are able to disregard the present
and give up on past achievements for that imagined future.
Zimbardo and Boyd believe that some Islamic suicide bombers think like this.
They believe in the attainment of a perfect life at some point in the future and
consider suicide attacks necessary to facilitate the realization of that vision.
Ma’s lack of memory regarding the past animosity between the KMT and the CCP
means that he has positive and optimistic memories of the past. This can be seen
in his immense goodwill toward China regardless of the cost.
Ma’s view is that all benefits exist in the future and that all disagreements
should be forgotten, to the point that the military has stopped using live
ammunition in exercises. He may even see the rise of China as an entirely
positive thing.
Unfortunately, it appears as though Ma has moved from one extreme — blocking all
deals with China — to another, namely gambling Taiwan’s future on developing a
healthy relationship with China. In this context, an ECFA provides an important
litmus test for his view of the future. Ultimately, if Ma is unable to deal with
such a “soft” issue as an ECFA, China is unlikely to ever trust him to handle
“hard” issues like political negotiations?
It is good for a country’s leadership to govern with an eye on the future.
However, plans for the future must not be based on subjective or overly
optimistic ideas. The past offers us many lessons that we absolutely must learn
from. Future power requires in-depth knowledge of history, because the past
holds many clues to the future.
Indeed, our current actions only become meaningful when carefully thought as
part of a plan for the future, with goals set accordingly. Taiwan would benefit
greatly if the ruling and opposition parties, as well as society in general,
learned how to make the best use of the future power.
Ji Shun-jie is an assistant professor at Tamkang University’s
Graduate Institute of Future Studies.
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