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ECFA and rumors of PRC missile movements
By Wang Jyh-perng 王志鵬
Thursday, Jun 24, 2010, Page 8
On at least 18 separate occasions since President Ma Ying-jeou
(馬英九) took office just two years ago, media or government departments here or
abroad have openly called for China to remove the missiles it has pointed at
Taiwan. The last occasion was on May 6 during a videoconference hosted by
Harvard University’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, when Ma said that
unless China removes the missiles targeting Taiwan, he would not take further
steps to negotiate a cross-strait peace agreement.
There has been no clear official response from China on this, other than the
assertion on Jan. 21 last year by Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesman
Colonel Hu Changming (胡昌明) that the timing of any redeployment was contingent on
how the situation develops. China has taken little notice of calls to remove the
missiles, and there is no practical significance, from a military point of view,
even if it agrees to do so. As former minister of national defense Chen Chao-min
(陳肇敏) said on June 2, 2008: “Taking the missiles away may send a political
message, but it doesn’t really mean anything in military terms, because the
missiles can be redeployed at any time.”
On Wednesday last week, US Senator Dianne Feinstein, chairwoman of the US Senate
Select Committee on Intelligence, told a Senate meeting: “In my meeting with
some of the leadership, it was mentioned that China had offered to redeploy
back. Now I understand the word ‘redeploy’ isn’t ‘remove.’”
Although neither the US nor China has officially confirmed Feinstein’s
statement, it does suggest that the situation has changed, albeit in a subtle
way.
China has recently offered a range of compromises to facilitate the signing of a
proposed economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with Taiwan. Another
issue high on Beijing’s agenda is how it can stop the US from selling arms to
Taiwan. When US President Barack Obama’s administration gave the green light to
a US$6.4 billion arms sales package, Beijing for some reason held back on
blaming Taiwan and instead focused its anger on the US. It immediately ceased
all military exchanges with the US and this month even rejected a proposed visit
by US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.
Feinstein’s comments imply that Beijing may now be thinking in terms of changing
the current military deployment aimed at Taiwan. On the surface, this may seem
to be the demonstration of goodwill that Taiwan has been looking for, but one
suspects it may be little more than a ploy by China to strengthen its hand.
Through this, China could get the US to agree to stop selling arms to Taiwan,
with China likely adding another concession that would benefit US national
interests. While this approach is unlikely to succeed in getting the US to
cancel arms sales outright, it might induce Washington to postpone or suspend
the sale.
The issue of arms sales to Taiwan is a sensitive one, and the US knows this. It
consider its national interests as a whole, taking into account the current
situation in the Asia-Pacific region and other factors that we are not privy to.
The question is how to respond to the issue with the Taiwanese government or
with Beijing, when it officially brings the subject up — which is very likely to
happen after an ECFA is signed. This is sure to be a political minefield,
whatever approach the US ends up taking.
Another factor will be the response of Taiwan’s armed forces, and how they could
continue to make an impact on the political decision-making process and avoid
being sidelined as a result. This is going to be a severe challenge for military
command, and a test of both its judgment and vision.
Wang Jyh-perng is an associate research fellow at the
Association for Managing Defense and Strategies.
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