Referendums all about politics

On Friday, President Chen Shui-bian openly declared for the first time that public referendums on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant and other important topics of public concern will be held on or before March 20, the day of the presidential election. Chen's declaration was not all that surprising. After all, his administration has gone in the past few weeks from treating the topic as taboo to sending out a lot of overt messages about the inevitability of referendums. What is more surprising is the pan-blue camp's decision to jump on the bandwagon by voicing support for referendums. Without a doubt, referendums will, if they have not already, become the central theme of the next presidential election.

It is important to point out that supporting the right to hold referendums should not be equated with an individual's position on the issues to be voted on. Instead, it is based on the recognition of the fundamental democratic principle that people have the right to have a direct say on issues of grave importance to them.

In this regard, it is the right thing to do for both the ruling and opposition camps to support this principle. However, it would be naive to think that this is the only thing on politicians' minds. To them, the bottom line is still votes, especially with the next presidential election coming up. At a time like this, no one wants to play the bad guy and be the one accused of denying a fundamental right of the people.

The DPP's reason for pitching referendums is simple. The performance of the Chen administration over the past three years has not lived up to expectations, to say the least. While this has much to do with the way the blue camp has been blocking the administration every chance it gets, there are hardly enough achievements to boast about and time is running out.

The referendum issue is a quick fix for the administration. Not only will it win people over, but, just like former president Lee Teng-hui -- who will always be revered as the one who made the first popular presidential election possible -- Chen can enjoy a place in history for leading the people to a new democratic milestone. It would be all the merrier should Beijing be stupid enough to make loud and rude objections, since the people of Taiwan will only become more resentful of China and supportive of Chen.

As for the pan-blue camp, it has decided that if it can't beat them, it might as well join them. But its support comes with undercurrents. For one, it is saying that a special legislative session should be held to enact a national referendum law in order to push for a referendum as early as August. This is an attempt to de-link referendums from the presidential election so that Chen won't get any windfall from it. Moreover, should people decide through the referendum in August to halt construction of the nuclear power plant, the DPP government would have to begin dealing with the related mess -- paying hefty damages for breaching contracts, a potential power shortage and economic devastation -- before the election.

Amid all these political calculations, where does the welfare of the people lie?

Referendum to skirt sovereignty: DPP

DIRECT DEMOCRACY: In a four-point statement, the party said constitutional changes and national sovereignty should not be dealt with when the country holds referendums

By Fiona Lu

STAFF REPORTER

Two DPP lawmakers unveiled the party's plan for referendum legislation yesterday, one day after the pan-blue parties vowed to accelerate passage of a referendum law.

"The party will launch a special squad next week to push for the referendum legislation. Meanwhile, DPP members will visit their opposition counterparts and urge each party to conclude a draft bill that they are to present at the extraordinary session at an early date," DPP Legislator Chen Chin-de said.

Chen said the party's stance contains four points.

"The law, either to be called the referendum law or the initiative and referendum law, is unnecessary to cope with issues that will involve a change of sovereignty," Chen said of the first point.

A referendum conducted under the auspices of the referendum law must not deal with constitutional amendments, he said.

This point was made because the Constitution trumps any statutory referendum result, Chen said.

But he said that his party believes a referendum on legislative reform may be an exception to this condition. Chen said a referendum on legislative reform is the party's third point.

"The ruling party believes that a referendum to express people's desire for legislative reform should greatly help the government attain the goal of reforming the legislature, which includes halving the number of seats and overhauling the electoral system," Chen said.

The party's fourth point, Chen said, is that a framework should be developed for holding an advisory referendum.

While Chen announced the DPP's four points in a press conference yesterday, his fellow DPP Legislator Jao Yung-ching reminded blue camp that the legislature must pass referendum legislation with exactitude.

"Referendum legislation cannot be completed in haste since lawmakers need to engage in comprehensive studies and research on referendum practice before formulating the law," said Jao, a longtime supporter of referendum legislation.

Jao said the DPP will present a final draft bill as its version for the extraordinary legislative session. Four draft bills, including one drafted by the Executive Yuan and three from lawmakers, were presented from the ruling party so far.

"The final one will base upon ideas presented by the Executive Yuan," Jao said at yesterday's news conference.

Jao said he was worried about the oppositions' vow to finalize the law next month and implement a referendum in August.

"The pan-blue lawmakers' rush hardly persuades me that they are aware of the importance of drafting the referendum law," Jao said.

According to pan-blue lawmakers, the DPP is using the referendum issue to further its presidential campaign.

KMT Legislator Huang Teh-fu said by holding referendums in August, ahead of the presidential election, the DPP will be held to account for the result.

Blue camp reverses course on referendums

CAMPAIGN STRATEGY: Analysts say the KMT-PFP alliance did a sudden U-turn on referendum legislation because it feels it can twist the policy to its advantage

By Sandy Huang

STAFF REPORTER

"The conditions the KMT-PFP alliance puts on holding referendums clearly show that the pan-blue camp's approval to formalize referendum legislation was not done out of sincerity, but political machination."－Chiu Hei-yuan, a sociology professor at National Taiwan University

The pan-blue camp made a 180-degree political pirouette on its referendum stance when on Friday it said it supported formalizing of referendum legislation and that it agreed to the DPP administration's call for a referendum on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant, WHO entry and a reduction in the number of seats in the legislature.

Even DPP legislative caucus whip Chen Chi-mai admitted that he was surprised by the news, saying that until that moment, calls for referendums had always drawn fire from with the KMT and PFP.

On Monday, PFP Chairman James Soong criticized the proposed referendum on the power plant and said a vote on WHO entry would be "nonsensical."

A seasoned political watcher said that political trickery is the motive behind the pan-blue camp's referendum U-turn.

"The conditions the KMT-PFP alliance puts on holding referendums clearly show that the pan-blue camp's approval to formalize referendum legislation was not done out of sincerity, but political machination," said Chiu Hei-yuan, a sociology professor at National Taiwan University.

While the KMT-PFP alliance supports referendum legislation, it says the referendum law ought to be enacted next month in order to allow a referendum on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant in August.

"How can the public be educated about issues that are to be covered in the referendum in such a short period of time, not to mention the implementation of the referendum itself?" Chiu said.

"The short time frame proposed by the pan-blue camp clearly indicates that the KMT-PFP alliance's approval to pass referendum legislation is politically motivated and shows that the alliance does not understand the true meaning of what referendums are supposed to be about," Chiu said.

The blue camp has agreed to holding referendums on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant, WHO entry and cutting the number of seats in the legislature because it is confident that it has nothing to lose, Chiu said.

"First of all, the topic of Taiwan's WHO entry does not count because it is an issue both the ruling and the opposition parties agreed to," Chiu said.

"As for the reduction in the number of legislature seats, the pan-blue camp figures that the public majority is likely to vote against it since it is a topic that the public does not really understand," Chiu said.

"Lien recently cited a poll which suggested that 60 percent of respondents are supportive of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant. For that reason, the pan-blue camp is confident that a referendum on the topic is doomed to produce an unfavorable result to the DPP administration," Chiu said.

"As long as they score points in the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant topic, the KMT-PFP alliance perceives it as a blow to the DPP administration and a victory for the alliance in the lead up to next March's presidential election," Chiu said.

A recent public opinion survey on the referendum issue is another reason for blue camp's flip-flop, Chiu said.

According to a survey conducted on Monday by the DPP, more than half of respondents supported the legalization of referendums.

"Given the large amount of public support for referendums, the blue camp realizes that it needs to go along with it in order to skirt blame that it is the one delaying referendum legislation," Chiu said.

"However, it's a shame that such a nice gesture is too greatly motivated by political intrigue," Chiu said.

Academics ponder China's next move on missile strategy

By Monique Chu

STAFF REPORTER

Academics remained split yesterday on whether Beijing's offer to cut back its missiles targeting Taiwan in exchange for reduced US arms sale to Taipei would be revived in the near future, with some dubbing it a dead-end proposal.

"I don't think we'll see any further developments," said Lo Chih-cheng, executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Eugene Chien confirmed on Friday reports that Washington had told Beijing to talk to Taipei directly regarding the offer.

The proposal was first raised by former Chinese president Jiang Zemin in his summit with US President George W. Bush last October, officials have said.

"Since the US is unwilling to talk to China over the proposal, neither is it possible for Taiwan to negotiate with China on the issue," Lo said. "It's basically a dead-end proposal as far as I can see."

Officials and analysts have interpreted the US response as Washington's attempt to de-link its arms sales to Taipei from Beijing's missile threat to Taiwan.

Washington sees its arms sales as being in its economic interests and as maintaining the military balance in the Taiwan Strait, and will not easily consider scaling back its weapons sales to Taiwan, Lo said.

"If the US agrees to negotiate with China over the issue, it may trigger a never-ending process that is not necessarily in the US interest," Lo said.

Joanne Chang, research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of European and American Studies, said Taipei should watch carefully whether Beijing pushes the proposal further.

Chang argued that Beijing's push for the proposal could serve China well.

"It can be utilized as international propaganda, a way to sell China as a peace-loving country to the US," Chang said.

Washington's perception that Beijing could play a role in pressuring North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program could give China the upper hand in selling the proposal to the US, Chang said.

"If China is willing to help the US with the issue of North Korea, it may enjoy a bit more bargaining power with the US," Chang said.

Although the proposal can been seen as China's partial response to Taipei's initiatives to urge Beijing to withdraw its missiles, the true trade-off Beijing desires is to negotiate with Washington over the US arms sale to Taiwan, Chang argued.

US arms sales to Taiwan must comply with the Taiwan Relations Act, which was enacted by the US Congress after Washington switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs launched a campaign last summer to urge China to withdraw its missiles targeting Taiwan. Jiang's proposal last October was seen as a partial response to this campaign, Chang said.

Taiwan's representative to the US, Chen Chien-jen, was the first Taiwanese official to reveal that Jiang had discussed dropping the ballistic missile deployment in exchange for the US freezing arms sales when he met Bush in Texas last October.

The envoy has said that some US officials had privately told him that neither Washington nor Taipei would be so naive as to buy Jiang's proposal.