Chinese invasion on July 22, 2004

Chinese invasion highly unlikely

By Paul Lin

Hong Kong's Wen Wei Po newspaper has reported that former Chinese president Jiang Zemin, the chairman of the Central Military Commission, mentioned a new timetable for reunification, saying that it should be achieved before 2020.

This has caused an uproar among politicians and the media in Taiwan. For those who, deep in their hearts, support China against Taiwan, this is the sort of news to make them excited. Since there is virtually no popular support for their ideology, they rely on such statements to lift their morale.

Ever since the publication of T-Day, August 1995, such people have sensationalized news of a possible invasion like drug addicts, making the most of it as a "fix" to keep them going.

Prior to this most recent incident, the discussion had been whether China would invade in 2006. This news also emanated from Beijing.

Rumor had it that the reason for selecting this date to attack Taiwan was that China would still have two years to put matters right [with the international community], so as not to affect the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

Early last month Vice Minis-ter of National Defense Michael Tsai, when being questioned on the possible invasion threat in 2006 by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and People First Party (PFP) legislators, said: An assessment by the US Department of Defense indicates that by 2006 or 2008, China would pose a credible military threat.

Taiwan understands that such thinking exists, but neither accepts it nor rejects it. This statement was later turned into Tsai's own statement about the military situation.

If we compare this statement with the news about an attack around the year 2020 revealed by Wen Wei Po, the situation seems to be hopelessly confused. Does China intend to attack Taiwan in 2006, or in 2020? Such contradictory statements emanating from China can only indicate that they are in a quandary about what to do about Taiwan's growing awareness of national sovereignty. The reason for their indecision is that they know that they cannot deceive, nor can they frighten, the US into rejecting its commitment to support Taiwan.

The exposure given to news about China's military has reached such a level as to be no longer rational. Every military exercise, every military appointment, is now regarded as related to an invasion of Taiwan. Does this level of excitement indicate that such people love Taiwan, or that they love the idea that China will invade Taiwan?

Will China invade? To answer with an absolute negative is to be unrealistic, for China's leaders might have a moment of madness, and for this reason, this country should prepare itself for war. Apart from the annual Han Kuang military exercises, the public also has to be psychologically prepared, otherwise, if it comes to the worst, response will be uncoordinated and surrender will be the only option.

But there is not much probability that China will invade. China's leaders are now all big bosses, collecting the profits of capitalism.

If war breaks out, foreign investment will be withdrawn, and they will lose their opportunities for profit and corruption.

According to the Nanfang Daily, an official publication of the Guangdong Provincial Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, figures released by the State Development Planning Council show that foreign direct investment in China exceeded US$500 billion at the end of last year. This accounted for over 40 percent of GDP, a level significantly higher than in developed countries or other countries in Asia. This already presents significant potential problems that cannot be ignored, let alone if there was a war.

The Chinese military wants a war, but the politicians don't. The central government wants a war, but the provinces don't. The generals want a war, but the soldiers don't. In the face of such internal contradictions, it will be difficult to launch an invasion.

There is also the cumulative popular anger over the gulf between the rich and the poor, heavy taxes and the scandals caused by loopholes in the financial system, which could also topple the government. This is a price the Chinese Communist Party is not willing to pay. And this does not take into account Taiwan's ability to counterattack and possible international involvement.

But fundamentally, China won't invade because the US still supports Taiwan.

The media has sought to make the most of China's military exercises off Dongshan Island, but we must also remember that the US is also conducting military exercises not far away.

If China's military exercise spills over into actual warfare, the US will have troops immediately on hand.

This is the most practical support that the US can give to Taiwan. Those people who devote themselves to undermining our relationship with the US may simply not love Taiwan. They should be criticized for helping Beijing undermine the Taiwan-US relationship and trying to give it an opportunity to invade.

Paul Lin is a commentator based in New York.

Rice broke new ground in Beijing

By Wu Ming-chi

The latest talks between high-level US and Chinese officials have come and gone with all the players reiterating their standard lines. This time, US National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice met with Chinese President Hu Jintao, former president Jiang Zemin, and Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing. While Rice expected discussions to focus on Beijing's role in stopping North Korea's nuclear weapons program, her Chinese counterparts made it clear that Taiwan was, is and will continue to be their primary concern when it comes to US-China relations.

Li presented Rice with a "three stops" request -- evidence that China perceives a warmer US-Taiwan relationship and is eager to quash it. China demanded that the US stop selling advanced arms to Taiwan, stop all official engagements with Taiwan and stop offering Taiwan its support in gaining membership to international organizations that require statehood as a condition for membership.

These demands come in the wake of the increased quality and quantity of arms the US is willing to sell to Taiwan -- in the form of diesel submarines, antisubmarine planes and Patriot antimissile systems; increased military exchanges between the US and Taiwan; a fuller, more respectful reception for President Chen Shui-bian during his visits to the US; and US support for Taiwan's participation in the World Health Organization.

That Rice rebuffed these demands and reiterated the US' commitment to the "one China" policy was to be expected. That Rice went further, urging Jiang to open lines of communication with Chen, was also to be expected.

refreshing deviation

However, that Rice went even further, describing as unhelpful China's condition for talks -- that Taiwan accept the "one China" policy -- was a refreshing deviation from scripted policy lines. Her comments echo statements made by Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly, who said that the governments on both sides need to "pursue dialogue as soon as possible through any available channels without preconditions."

As Richard Bush, former chairman and managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan, said, "It does not seem constructive for one side to set preconditions for a resumption of dialogue that the other side even suspects would be tantamount to conceding a fundamental issue before discussion begins. For side A, in effect, to ask side B to concede a major point would only raise side B's doubts about side A's good intentions.

Also, it does not seem helpful [or logical] for one side to say that anything can be discussed once certain conditions are met but rule out in advance discussion of approaches other than its preferred approach."

After all, despite the plethora of unresolved economic and social issues that divide the two sides, all discussion pares down to one issue: the relationship between Taipei and Beijing. But if Chen is forced to accept China's rigid and unrealistic "one China" principle before beginning discussions, what is left to discuss?

For China, the "one China" principle means that there is, unequivocally, one China to which Taiwan belongs. For Taiwan, the "one China" principle is an obstinate relic of a bygone era of a unified Chinese empire, a noose that threatens to suffocate the democracy that has emerged in the past 50 years.

For the US, the "one China" policy is not so much a policy as an ambiguous mantra combining presidential statements, the Three Communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act. Today Taiwan enjoys de facto independence. It meets all the requirements of a state, as the international community determined at the 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States.

The conditions for statehood are that a state has a permanent population, a defined territory, a form of government and a capacity to enter into relations with other states. Taiwan clearly passes all tests. It has a defined population of 23 million, a clearly demarcated territory, a democratically elected government and can interact with other states as evinced by the diplomatic relations it shares with more than two dozen states.

cold war relic

Having an open dialogue between China and Taiwan without conditions gives both governments the freedom to discuss solutions for the future. The "one China" principle is a relic of the Cold War and as such it cannot be anachronistically applied as the foundation of discussions about the future of the Taiwan Strait. Unlike so many of these high-level meetings, Taiwan's future is not scripted, nor is it predetermined.

If negotiations must proceed with the condition of a "one China" principle and its assumed outcome, then is there really anything to negotiate? The future of Taiwan and its fate cannot be decided by a decades-old policy formed without the consent of Taiwan's people, it cannot be decided by China, nor can it be decided by the US -- the fate of Taiwan can and will only be decided by the people of Taiwan.

Wu Ming-chi is president of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs.

Nation should join UN using name `Taiwan'

CNA , TAIPEI
 

Representatives of pro-Taiwan independence groups urged the government yesterday to use the name "Taiwan" when applying for membership in the UN.

Peter Wang, executive director of the Alliance to Campaign for Rectifying the Name of Taiwan, said after meeting with Minister of Foreign Affairs Mark Chen and some 20 repre-sentatives from his alliance and the United Nations Association of Taiwan, that there exists a larger opportunity for Taiwan to join the UN under the name "Taiwan," rather than the "Republic of China," although the task will be difficult.

Wang said that Taiwan will eventually join the world organization as long as the government has the determination to apply for membership with the name "Taiwan, " which he said has the support of all the people of Taiwan.

Joining the United Nations is a universal desire of the people of Taiwan, he said.

Taiwan began efforts in 1993 to re-enter the world body. Taiwan was forced to leave the UN in 1971 when the world organization decided to give China's seat to Beijing instead of Taipei.

The annual UN Assembly will be convened on Sep. 8 and the private groups promoting Tai-wan's UN bid will form a 300-people delegation to the US to campaign for Taiwan's international participation.

Chen yesterday responded to calls from the groups, saying that he "will endeavor to give the utmost efforts to realize this goal in compliance with the real-world situation."