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Korean
nukes on Aug 05, 2004 N
Korean nukes could strike US DETAILED
PICTURE: An authoritative military publication said that the hermit state is
equipping long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and deploying subs
In the most alarming and detailed picture yet painted of Pyongyang's
deterrent force, the authoritative military publication said the navy had
customized a dozen scrapped Russian submarines to launch ballistic weapons of
mass destruction. Rumors have been circulating for several years that North Korea is
developing an intercontinental missile -- the Taepodong 2 -- but the latest
report suggests that the country's leader, Kim Jong-il, may also have ordered
his military to attempt a short cut. If confirmed, North Korea would join an exclusive club capable of covertly
launching atomic weapons from submarines. Only the five permanent members of the
UN security council -- the US, UK, France, China and Russia -- and possibly
Israel possess such a strategic advantage. The article, which appears in this week's edition of Jane's, says
North Korea's new systems appeared to be based on a decommissioned Soviet
submarine-launched ballistic missile, the R-27. It notes that several Russian missile experts from Chelyabinsk, a city in
the Urals, were blocked in an attempt to enter North Korea in 1992, but others
succeeded in subsequent years. Much of the technology was reportedly transferred in the form of scrap in
1993, when a Japanese trading firm sold 12 decommissioned Foxtrot and Golf II
class submarines to North Korea. Although many key mechanisms were removed, the
magazine said the vessels still contained launch tubes and stabilising
sub-systems. By customizing these devices, it said, North Korea had developed
and deployed a land-based missile with a range of 2,500km to 4,000km, as well as
a sea-based missile with a range of 2,500km. The version of the missile capable of being launched from submarines or
ships "is potentially the most threatening," Jane's said.
"It could finally provide its leadership with something that it has long
sought to obtain -- the ability to directly threaten the continental US." North Korea's nuclear and missile programs have long been a concern to the
world. Although the country has never successfully tested a nuclear weapon, it is
thought to have reprocessed sufficient plutonium for one to eight warheads. According to the South Korean military, North Korea has 600 Scud missiles
with a range of 600km and 100 Nodong missiles with a range of 1,300km. It also
test-fired a multi-stage Taepodong 1 rocket over Japan in 1998. A second-generation Taepodong capable of hitting Hawaii, Alaska and
possibly the western seaboard of the US is under development. Although the CIA believes that North Korea possesses an arsenal of
biological and chemical weapons, Jane's news editor, Ian Kemp, said there
was no doubt that the new missiles were primarily designed to carry nuclear
warheads. But Japanese military analysts are sceptical that North Korea possesses the
miniaturization technology to fit a nuclear warhead into a missile.
Chen's
reforms: 'mission possible' By
Chiou Chwei-liang The consolidation of
democracy in Taiwan has suffered because the blue camp could not accept their
defeat in the March 20 presidential election, and could not resist the
opportunity offered by the assassination attempt on the president and the vice
president on March 19 to launch a protest movement with the slogan "no
truth, no president." The movement has arranged repeated street protests
and created disorder, which has made it difficult to consolidate Taiwan's
democracy. The presidential election highlighted the fact that Taiwan's
democratization process is fraught with problems. In the final analysis,
however, the most fundamental problem is the national identity crisis, and the
biggest systemic and structural problem is the confusion within the system of
constitutional government and difficulties in its operation. Regarding constitutional reform, Su Tseng-chang, Presidential Office
secretary-general, a few days back visited the author Po Yang to discuss the
matter. The visit was the first stop on Su's quest to gather opinions regarding
constitutional reform from every level and sector of society, including each
opposition party. Having said that constitutional reform is not the exclusive preserve of one
party, he will invite representatives of each opposition party, judicial
circles, academia and every level of society to discuss the issue together in
order to solicit a wide range of opinions. During the presidential election campaign, President Chen Shui-bian
promoted the idea that a new constitution should be completed by 2006 and
implemented after the inauguration of the next president in 2008. In his May 20
inauguration speech, he pointed out that most articles in the current
constitution no longer meet Taiwan's current and future needs, and that he
therefore was initiating a constitutional reform project. Domestic and international pressure caused Chen to retreat from his
pre-election promotion of writing a new constitution. Instead, since the
election he has promoted reform to amend the current constitution, thereby
creating a "new" constitution that is in step with the times and that
fits today's Taiwan without changing its national title, flag, anthem or
territory -- which would continue to include the Chinese mainland, Outer
Mongolia and Tibet). He has clearly sent himself on a "mission
impossible." However, we believe Chen to have the sincerity, strength of purpose and
ability to make this "mission impossible" possible. If anyone is able
to do so, it is Chen, and no one else. We are all waiting in anticipation. Constitutional reform is the biggest political project a nation can
undertake. Chen has to work hard, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has to
work hard and so do the people. The success of Su's quest for opinions will
therefore depend on Chen and the DPP as well as the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)
and all the people of Taiwan. This is difficult, and we can understand and
recognize that difficulty. However, although the four opposition parties all agreed on it during the
presidential election campaign, they now seem to have forgotten everything about
halving the number of legislative seats and the single-member district,
double-ballot system, which are both more easily accomplished if implemented
together. Even Chen and the DPP have backtracked and reneged on policies, which
certainly is both disappointing and unacceptable. In response to external demands for the fulfillment of the promise to halve
the number of legislative seats, a senior member of the DPP has said that if the
number of seats is halved without an accompanying implementation of electoral
reform in the form of the single-member district system, the DPP may forever
remain a minority party in the legislature. He said that with the current 225-seat legislature (168 seats representing
electoral districts), each legislator is elected by between 100,000 to 150,000
voters. If the number of seats is reduced to 113, there will only be a mere 74
seats representing electoral districts. In other words, each legislator will
represent 200,000 to 300,000 voters. In Hualien county, Keelung City and Hsinchu
City, which now are allocated two or three seats, the DPP currently holds at
least one seat. If there is only one seat left to compete for, it would make it
difficult for the DPP to win. This person said that if the Taitung, Kinmen and Lienchiang County seats
and the six seats reserved for representatives of the Aboriginal peoples are
included, the DPP would immediately stand to lose 12 seats in these areas, where
they have always been weak. If the DPP wants to win a majority of the seats
representing electoral districts, the party would have to win 37 of the
remaining 62 seats. In other words, the DPP would have to win over 60 percent of the vote in
the remaining parts of Taiwan to be able to secure a legislative majority. This
person said that Chen was made aware of this DPP estimate some time last month.
People with a mind for details will notice that Chen only rarely mentions the
issue these days. The DPP is in trouble but can hardly talk about it. If they make this
estimate public, they may well be criticized for backtracking on their campaign
promises, and the blue camp will probably insist on separating the two issues
and pass only a bill halving the number of legislative seats while not agreeing
to a single-member district, double-ballot system. These concerns are specious. First, if the above calculation is wrong, the
reasoning of course fails. Furthermore, the opposition parties have already
agreed that the two measures shall be simultaneously implemented to achieve the
goal of electoral reform. The DPP must of course continue to insist on linking
the implementation of the two measures. What is most surprising and depressing is that although the DPP has made a
thorough estimate of the situation following a halving of the number of
legislative seats, that estimate is seriously mistaken. The DPP is misleading
itself and destroying its dominance. First, even before there has been an election, the party has conceded
defeat in six districts and the loss of the six Aboriginal peoples' seats. In
other words, the system cannot be changed because they are afraid of losing. How
short-sighted and preposterous! Good systems are meant to be launched and
implemented. Under a good system parties shall work hard to win their votes.
Where is the logic in conceding defeat even before an election has been held? Second, the calculation is preposterous. After a halving of the number of
legislative seats, Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu, Hualien and Taitung will still all
have one seat each. Given the democratic principle of one man, one vote, the
result is far from being settled. In most districts, an average of 200,000 votes
are required for election, but in Kinmen, Matsu, and Penghu, and even Hualien
and Taitung, several tens of thousand, or even a few thousand votes, are
sufficient to win election, so these votes are an exception to the principle
that every vote has equal value. Therefore, Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu together may only be allowed to elect
one legislator, and the Hualien and Taitung districts, and even the Hsinchu
County and City districts may also be merged into one district. Following the
same reasoning, the number of seats reserved for Aboriginal peoples should also
be halved. There are historical reasons why today's electoral districts do not adhere
to the principle of one man, one vote, each of equal value. But times have
changed, and there is no longer any reason to maintain old, undemocratic ways.
That which needs changing must be changed. Chen and the DPP must not go on
hatching and calculating -- or miscalculating -- plots, so that these two
electoral reforms continue to be delayed or even abandoned as a result of faulty
logic. The democratic principle of "one man, one vote" is an ideal that
must be pursued and implemented. The DPP was formed based on democratic ideals.
So if reform is not promoted, and the DPP backtracks on its promise, the
Taiwanese people will not forgive them. And further down the road of history,
they will remember and bring the DPP to account. Chiou
Chwei-liang is a visiting professor at Tamkang University.
Chirac
can't be trusted By
Lee Long-hwa Alain Madelin, chairman
of the French Liberal Democratic Party, has been openly critical of how cozy
French President Jacques Chirac has been with the Chinese dictatorship,
particularly his recent rolling out the red carpet for Chinese President Hu
Jintao. When Madelin came to Taiwan to meet President Chen Shui-bian, Chen took the
opportunity to point out that the EU's experience in integrating former hostile
Soviet satellites -- such as the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania -- could help Taiwan in developing a
framework for resolving cross-strait relations. Although wanting to laud such aspirations, offer support and encouragement
and embrace the possibility that cross-strait conflict could be resolved through
cooperation, Madelin lamented that such a scenario was impossible. He suggested
Taiwan cannot possibly emulate the EU as long as China is determined to attack
Taiwan, because the EU is based on "peaceful relations among all
members." How true. The former Soviet Union's satellites could not join NATO as long
as the USSR was determined to attack it. Germany could not join the world as a
respected democratic nation as long as it was determined to rule the world.
Neither could Japan. But things change. In the case of Germany and Japan, defeat in war, rehabilitation and
democratic reform changed their situation. In the case of the Soviet Union,
overwhelming US military might, free-market economics, democracy, and glasnost
brought about the demise of communism and totalitarianism. What followed was
unthinkable a decade earlier. Madelin's comments highlight how arrogant the French government is to
denigrate Taiwan's yearning for a change from China's bellicose ramblings.
Instead of lauding Taiwan's yearning for freedom, the French have instead paid
lip service to Chinese imperialism. France talks up its purported democratic ideals and principles, but at the
same time it rushes to Beijing to find out how many bombs, jet fighters,
submarines and missiles it can sell to the world's most dangerous totalitarian
dictatorship. While Madelin was visiting Chen, discussing constitutional and
parliamentarian niceties, the French government was in Beijing hatching plans to
sell bombs that could be used to destroy Taiwan. Should we trust France under Chirac? Absolutely not. Lee
Long-hwa United States
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