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Home ownership rate is misleading
By Hua Chang-i µØ©÷©y
Wednesday, Apr 14, 2010, Page 8
The recent controversy over housing prices began with a public opinion poll by
the Research, Development and Evaluation Commission showing surging housing
prices topping the list of public complaints. The Cabinet¡¦s attempts to address
the issue were criticized as harming property prices, however, with critics
branding the moves an unwise political move that would undermine the assets of
most home owners and hurt the local economy.
Premier Wu Den-yih (§d´°¸q), who has promised to listen to public opinion, was at a
loss as to how to deal with the complaints, and government policy kept swinging
back and forth. Wu¡¦s wavering is a reflection of how a dearth of information on
the real-estate sector has made decision-making difficult. The ¡§home ownership
rate¡¨ is one of the most distorted and misunderstood data points, and this has
directly affected the administration¡¦s judgment.
The official home ownership rate refers to homes registered as ¡§self-owned.¡¨
That rate is currently about 88 percent. However, given that some individuals
own more than one property, the home ownership rate does not directly translate
into the number of households owning a home. Equating the two is either an
honest mistake or a deliberate distortion. To investigate the source of the
complaints, we need to know the real home ownership rate based on the number of
households that own a house. Unfortunately, no such data exist, so one can only
make estimates.
The total number of households in the country ¡X registered households ¡X is about
the same as the total housing stock, which is about 7.8 million. What does
Taiwan¡¦s home ownership distribution look like? Following are my estimates based
on a national census conducted 10 years ago, an Academia Sinica survey involving
home ownership from many years ago and the semi-annual telephone surveys on
housing demand conducted by the Institute for Physical Planning and Information
that I work for.
For every 100 registered households, about 30 do not own a home. Among these 30,
12 households either rent or stay in dormitories, and 18 either share a home
with other households or individuals such as relatives and friends, mainly
parents or children. The other 70 households own a total of 88 houses, and this
is the source of the government¡¦s home ownership rate. Among those 70, 60
households own one home each, seven households own two homes each, and three
households own three or even more homes each.
Assuming these estimates are correct, how do high housing prices affect the
public? For the 30 households that do not own a house, one-third are likely part
of the socially and economically disadvantaged group who have long lost hope of
owning their own home and are indifferent to politics. The remaining two-thirds
want to, but have given up hope of ever owning a home ¡X these make up the most
angry group. At the other end of the spectrum are the 10 households who own two
or more homes: Rising home prices mean a continued expansion of their assets.
The situation for the rest ¡X those in between these two extremes ¡X is more
complicated. Although their wealth increases in value on paper, it is difficult
for them to make use of this wealth since they still live there. Rising home
prices also make it difficult for them to raise their standard of living by
moving to a bigger or better place. Generally speaking then, they are also
victims. Surging housing prices are also squeezing out small investors, leaving
the wealth concentrated in the hands of the rich.
In short, there is reason for the public complaints. This evaluation looks at
the overall situation in Taiwan, so there is likely to be even more and stronger
complaints in urban Taipei.
How can we make the government aware of this issue? Those who have the ability
to influence government policy are mainly business lobbying groups and the
minority who own two or more houses. Still, democratic politics is based on
individual votes, and this is still a good way to express public discontent. The
housing issue looks set to be a contentious issue in the five special
municipality elections in November and the 2012 presidential election. Instead
of a chaotic political battle between the ruling and opposition camps, we should
rationally discuss the situation and public opinion to formulate a clearer and
more decisive housing policy.
Hua Chang-i is a research fellow at the Institute of Physical
Planning and Information.
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