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Taiwan's Tsai
Stresses Slower Track for China Ties
By PAUL MOZUR, JENNY W. HSU and ARIES POON
Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903895904576544401732534060.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
TAIPEI¡XTaiwanese presidential challenger Tsai Ing-wen said that Taiwan should
take its time to develop trade and tourism links with China, in an interview
that highlighted a shift that ties between Taipei and Beijing might undergo if
she defeats incumbent Ma Ying-jeou, who has fast-tracked relations with the
island's giant neighbor.
"We are not in a rush," Ms. Tsai, chairperson of the opposition Democratic
Progressive Party, told The Wall Street Journal. If elected in January's vote,
she said she would re-examine a key trade deal signed between China and Taiwan
last year known as the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA).
"Ten years, in my view, is just too short," she said, referring to what she said
was a common time frame for economic opening under free-trade agreements.
Chinese banks are "much, much bigger," she said, and local banks may not be able
to withstand a competitive onslaught. "We have to think very seriously about the
survival of our financial institutions," she said.
She also said that Taiwan doesn't currently have the infrastructure to cope with
a sudden influx of Chinese tourists. In 2010, the number of Chinese tourists
soared to 1.6 million from a mere 200,000 in 2008.
Ms. Tsai is currently running neck-and-neck in opinion polls with the Kuomintang
party's Mr. Ma, who has presided over a rapid improvement in trade and economic
ties with Taiwan's longtime rival.
She said the DPP is throwing out "olive branches" to China to show its goodwill,
but she rejected a vague agreement between Beijing and the KMT on Taiwan's
status as a part of "one China," which both view to be the foundation for recent
economic cooperation. Instead, she said, Beijing must accept the Taiwanese
people's commitment to their own sovereignty. China regards Taiwan as a renegade
province to be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.
A former law professor known for her academic demeanor, Ms. Tsai became Taiwan's
vice premier under former DPP president Chen Shui-bian, who infuriated China
with his pro-independence policies and is now in jail for corruption. Earlier,
she served as the chairperson of the Mainland Affairs Council, which is
responsible for Taiwan's policy toward China.
Since the 2008 presidential and legislative elections, which the DPP lost by a
landslide amid widespread accusations of corruption against Mr. Chen, Ms. Tsai
has headed the DPP, helping to restore its credibility and ushering in a new
consensus within the party that aims for a more conciliatory tone toward China.
Ms. Tsai has insisted that ECFA¡Xwhich is now structured as a
preferential-treatment pact rather than a traditional free-trade agreement
between two countries¡Xbe consistent with the guidelines of the World Trade
Organization, where both Taiwan and China are members. However, Citigroup
economist Cheng Cheng-mount China might not accept this, since under current
ECFA guidelines, trade disputes are handled bilaterally whereas under the WTO
they are handled multilaterally and China is likely to reject a process that
involves other countries.
Ms. Tsai acknowledged there are significant "conflicting interests" between the
DPP and China. "China must face the fact that Taiwan is a democracy and they
have to treat Taiwan as a democracy. The way they conduct business with us, the
way they have dialogues with us, they all have to keep this in mind: Taiwan is a
democracy," she said.
Cross-Strait relations are likely to dominate the presidential vote, including
the impact that closer economic integration has had on the island's economy, an
area in which Mr. Ma is vulnerable. While rapidly growing trade with China has
underpinned the island's rapid recovery from the global recession, critics say
that it has also widened the island's wealth gap and contributed to growing
unemployment, as high-tech companies migrate to China. Mr. Ma also has been
criticized for failing to wean the island's economy off its heavy reliance on
exports, particularly in the high-tech sector.
Pointing to last year's 10.8% economic growth, Ms. Tsai said that number
reflected a jump in global demand for exports, but had failed to bring quality
jobs to Taiwan as more than 50% of those products are in fact produced elsewhere
by Taiwanese companies.
Ms. Tsai said she hopes to spur more investment in research and development, as
well as in green energy, to help narrow the wealth gap. She also said that
Taiwan should invest heavily in urban renewal to replace many of the island's
old and unsightly buildings that were built during the economic boom in the
1960s and '70s.
Despite the close polls, Ms. Tsai faces an uphill battle in the coming months.
China has made it no secret that it backs Mr. Ma, issuing a rebuke last week of
Ms. Tsai's cross-Strait policy. On Thursday, the DPP said its computers continue
to be targeted by a Chinese hacking campaign that it expects to become more
intense before the elections.
Some pundits say that Ms. Tsai may face discrimination as the island's first
female presidential candidate, but Ms. Tsai said that could work in her favor.
"People here might still be skeptical about whether a woman is capable of
leading a country, but in general...people think it is okay. In certain sectors
of the society here, people tend to think this is a rather fashionable idea."
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