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The ‘China dream’ may
become a nightmare
By Huang Tien-lin 黃天麟
Taiwan faces many problems, primarily caused by the alarming number of Taiwanese
businesses relocating to China. It is getting harder to earn a decent living in
Taiwan; average income levels are lower than they were 12 years ago,
unemployment is high, exports are falling and GDP per capita is now lower than
that of South Korea. The government cannot keep using deregulation as an excuse
while ordinary people suffer.
I have written about this countless times over the past decade, but have been
largely ignored by the pan-blue camp and even many important decisionmakers in
the pan-green camp. Now that even a media baron has said as much about Taiwan’s
problems, perhaps they might start believing me.
The pro-unification media has been encouraging Taiwanese businesses to enter
China for the past 12 years. Now many people think that this is the only way
Taiwanese companies can make a profit. Those who think about establishing
themselves in Taiwan by following the “no haste, be patient” policy are labeled
as proponents of a closed-door policy.
Twelve years of businesses relocating to China have passed. The administration
of former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) embarked on a policy of proactive
liberalization, while President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has looked to total
liberalization and the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement. However, all
have failed to benefit Taiwan economically.
This is especially true of the past four years, during which the Ma
administration was following its total liberalization policy. Instead of helping
Taiwan’s economy, it caused great damage. South Korea invests much less in China
than Taiwan, but is doing much better in many areas, such as its share of the
Chinese market, growth in exports and increase in annual wages for workers.
The harm caused by Taiwanese businesses relocating to China goes beyond
economics. It has also been damaging politically. The pan-blue parties know that
rhetoric about relocation is a surefire way to keep their voter base: It
certainly worked wonders in the week leading up to the Jan. 14 presidential
election. The economic scaremongering employed by the Chinese Nationalist Party
(KMT) and the CCP practically guaranteed them an extra 800,000 votes, turning
the election in their favor.
This alone put Taiwan further down the path to unification with China. Some of
the rhetoric used included: “Business is so great now between Taiwan and China
and the Democratic Progressive Party [DPP] is still talking about a Taiwanese
republic.”
This speaks volumes about the impact the idea of relocation to China has had on
Taiwanese politics.
The reason why a former KMT chairman had the gall to talk about “one country,
two areas (一國兩區)” on a recent visit to Beijing was because of the huge amount of
political capital the KMT has accumulated over 12 years of Taiwanese businesses
relocating to China.
“One country, one system” is no hypothetical situation set in the distant
future. If both sides of the political spectrum continue their policy of
economic integration with China — essentially “unification via economic means” —
“one country, two systems” is the only thing that can follow.
I really do not know when the pan-blue and pan-green leaders will wake up from
this “China dream” they have been having for the past 12 years. I just hope it
is sooner rather than later.
Huang Tien-lin is a former presidential adviser.
Translated by Drew Cameron
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