這篇文章是美國傳統基金會亞洲研究中心，LARRY M. WORTZEL博士所撰述，應該可以充份反應美國布希政府的新政策，值得大家一起來研究。在這裏把大要做介紹，其中會夾雜個人的看法，故以評述的方式逐段說明，這樣大家容易進入狀況，取得共識。
THE PRESIDENT'S POLICY CHALLENGES IN ASIA
LARRY M.
WORTZEL, PH.D.
February 1, 2001
其中談到以台灣關係法為基礎，出售台灣防衛性武器，與南北韓保持平衡關係，佈建盟國飛彈防衛系統 NMD，對印度、巴基斯坦的對峙局面做小心的處理，強調人權與中國加入 WTO，會有平行看法。
In establishing a new agenda for strengthening U.S. relations with Asian countries, President George W. Bush faces a number of challenges, some of which were left unresolved by his predecessor. Taiwan, for example, must be reassured that America is still committed to the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979, and China must understand that U.S. sales of defensive weapons to Taiwan under that law are meant to ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait. South Korea needs to know that America is committed to the 1994 Agreed Framework and supports President Kim Dae-jung's peace initiative, but that Washington also wants real reciprocity from the North. President Bush must emphasize to China that he wants a national missile defense as a way to increase stability and as a prudent response to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. He must make sure that relations with nuclear rivals India and Pakistan are carefully managed and that China abides by the terms of its recent trade agreement with the United States, which opened the door for its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
As complex as these challenges are, they have a common theme: It is in America's best interests to strengthen U.S. relations with long-time Asian allies and with countries that share its democratic values, have a market economy, respect human rights, and espouse free trade. President Bush should hold early meetings with the leaders of South Korea and Japan to begin emphasizing that theme.
中共對台灣威脅，表面上在商界有一番榮景，可是骨子裏積極準備一觸即發的 台海大戰，一方面要一舉殲滅台灣軍事系統，另方面對付美國介入台海實質的戰爭 ，美國現階段就是要更有彈性的去討論台灣防衛性武器的威力平衡，要台灣有牽制 中共侵入本土武力。
Reassuring Taiwan. The Clinton Administration largely ignored China's threatening military buildup over the past eight years across the Strait from Taiwan. China has acquired high-resolution radar satellites, new fighter jets, and stealth submarines. It has upgraded its ballistic missile capabilities and deployed new brigades of nuclear-capable missiles along the coast. And it has purchased arms from Russia, changing the power balance in the region. Taiwan is becoming more vulnerable to aggression, and the United States is obligated by principle and law (the TRA) to help Taiwan defend itself.
Taiwan will approach the Bush Administration in April with a new request to purchase defensive arms. The Bush Administration should, in consultation with Congress, enforce the TRA (P.L. 96-8) by stepping up sales of defensive arms to Taiwan, including improved missile defenses, command and control systems, air defenses, and anti-submarine defenses. This will enable Taiwan to balance Beijing's provocative military buildup. Tensions can be addressed and a settlement reached only if Taipei can negotiate from a secure position.
美國會繼續給予北韓施加壓力，而於援助北韓饑荒與南北韓交好之時，要求北韓實踐承諾，不做核彈研發與減少對南韓的核武威脅，彼此間軍力的平衡要有相當的默契。現階段不主張美國總統到北韓訪問，現在北韓的老大是中共，其正向老大哥學習轉型自救之道，以便謀求更多利益，而得以聯手對付美國的要求，此由北韓頭頭之頻訪中國交流有跡可尋。美國之害怕北韓成為中共所扶持之核彈大國，會變成面向西方民主世界的前進基地，現在加拿大用懷柔外交來巴結北韓，是民主國家一種示好的另類表現，亦值得深思。所以要強勢必須強兵，其最省錢的強大之方為不計代價發展人人驚恐的核子武器。
Strengthening Peace in Korea. In June 2000, leaders of North and South Korea met for the first time in 50 years and laid the groundwork for reconciliation. Both sides signed the 1994 Agreed Framework in which North Korea agreed to cease its“nuclear research”activities in exchange for the building of two 1,000 megawatt, energy-producing light water reactors by South Korea (with help from Japan, the United States, and the European Union); but new problems threaten that Framework. Participants have learned, for example, that North Korea's antiquated power grid is not stable enough to run even one reactor. This oversight must be addressed. Failure to redefine the project, already five years behind schedule, could give the North an excuse to restart its dangerous nuclear energy program. The United States should support the principles in the Agreed Framework; North Korea cannot develop an economy without desperately needed energy. The Administration should initiate diplomatic efforts to revisit the agreement and develop a new way to provide the North with adequate electricity. In the meantime, the Administration should encourage the North to make substantive changes in its threatening deployment of a million soldiers and their long-range artillery on the border with the South, where 37,000 American troops are helping to protect the peace President Bush should meet early with South Korean President Kim Dae-jung to define mutually beneficial positions on these issues, but he should not visit the North as long as a formal state of war exists on the Korean Peninsula.
日本人受原子彈之害，故大多反核，但是現在中共、北韓的核彈可以輕易發射 到日本本土，美國對日本負有防衛之責，卻不敢讓日本自行發展核子武器，故布希 政府就在南韓與日本兩國，要發展ＮＭＤ洲際飛彈防禦系統，主要在於保護美國本 土不受侵犯，另外台灣因地理相關，此保護系統必然不得不把台灣納入其防衛系統 中，否則中共的侵台將成美日聯防的大缺口，但是美國對中共的反應亦有相當程度 的重視，只是現行新政府態度較以往堅決。
Promoting Missile Defense for Japan. President Bush promised that among his key priorities would be "effective missile defenses to protect all 50 states and our friends and allies." The Japanese are hoping that he makes good on this pledge. North Korea successfully test-fired a multistage rocket over the Sea of Japan in August 1998, which led the Japanese government to partner with the United States to develop ballistic missile defenses. The Clinton Administration, however, made no clear commitment to missile defenses and devoted insufficient resources to research. The Bush Administration should seek the deployment of sea-based defenses in Asia as soon as possible to protect U.S. allies and friends from missile attack. The joint technical research program should continue, and unnecessary postponements of the Navy Theater-Wide (NTW) program, expected to be deployed in 2007, should be opposed. The President should also meet with Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori to discuss this and other bilateral issues.
印度是一個穩定成熟的國家，其敵國巴基斯坦乃是軍政府治國，其間的喀什米爾 Kashmir 問題必須小心冷靜以對，乃其等印巴雙方皆為核武國家，美國必得謹 慎化解其失控的危機。
Managing Relations with India and Pakistan. India is maturing as a stable democracy devoted to market reform; its leaders are seeking greater economic integration with and investment from the United States. Pakistan is ruled by a military dictatorship trying to control an unraveling economy. The dispute between these two countries over the province of Kashmir brought their peoples to the brink of nuclear war in 1999. President Clinton's visits to Pakistan and India appeared to involve the United States in the region but did nothing to address the basic issues. The Bush Administration should support the ongoing negotiations over Kashmir and refrain from getting involved or trying to negotiate a resolution.
布希總統亦支持中共進入 WTO，希望中共與台灣可以同時進入此組織系統，一方面緩和台海緊張，另外可以滿足中共的需求，台灣以獨立經濟個體參與此世界規則之商業貿易中，可以讓台灣有較寬廣的空間，對付中共無理的阻撓，美方會堅持其立場，不輕易接受中共於 WTO 中“一個中國原則”。
Trade with China. When the Clinton Administration signed a market access agreement with China, it paved the way for China's accession to the WTO. But the agreement will not come into force unless China joins the WTO, which it has yet to do. Moreover, WTO membership does not guarantee that China will abide by the terms of the agreement; forces within China are deeply opposed to greater trade competition and may seek to slow implementation. The Bush Administration should support China's accession to the WTO in 2001 and be as vigorous at enforcing the trade agreement as it was in negotiating its terms to ensure that trade with China is free and fair. The Administration must not allow China to delay implementation of the agreement once it has joined the WTO or permit China ( or any entity acting on its behalf in the WTO) to keep Taiwan from joining that trading body at the same time China joins.
台灣與中共的關係，可以加強經濟交流，絕不可以屈服一個中國原則，應以 WTO 個體獨立經濟主權為基礎，否則美國對台灣的主權立場會被有心人扭曲，而 終止於廢除“台灣關係法”的絕境，使美國政府難於立足台海爭執的合理地位；中 共一個中國政策，就是要模糊化美國對台灣的防衛正當理由。台灣之對應中共的威 嚇，必須秉持中華民國主權的基調，以不斷釋出善意與小三通到大三通的計劃性工 作，於 WTO 的規則中建構兩岸經貿的遊戲方式，故請某些人珍惜台灣的民主成就 ，不要興風作浪，自甘為中共對台統戰的馬前卒。
-- Larry M. Wortzel, Ph.D., is Director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage
