美國中央情報局，根據多年的搜證，它說，雖中共不再昇高武力打擊台灣的動作（用演習來恐嚇），但是民進黨執政，引起中共的疑惑與不信任是必然的現象。

　　中共現在加緊軍事現代化的更新，武器研發突飛猛進，是不是會適時攻台，尚很難說，於 2015 年中共會有能力對台做兩棲登陸攻台的實力。到時候會不會放手一搏，尚待評估，中共已被認為是美國強大的競爭對手，中共要成為東亞強權的目標，則是毫無疑問。

　　台灣與中共的關係，必得在可相容之處，擴大聯誼的範圍，有關敏感的問題，要能避開則避之；這次馬英九到香港親和訪問，就是一個很好的榜樣，台灣在堅強自我軍力做為後盾之下，須不斷向中共釋出善意，為維護民主自由與主權，某些折衝尚有彈性運作的空間。

 

DPP-led gov't complicates relations: CIA

Feb. 9, 2001 ---

　　George Tenet, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, said Tuesday that the situation across the Taiwan Strait has become even more complicated now that the Democratic Progressive Party-led government is in power in Taiwan.

　　While telling the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that Beijing has“stopped its saber rattling against Taiwan,”he added that“the unprecedented developments on Taiwan have complicated cross strait relations.”

　　He said that the election last March of President Chen Shui-bian“ushered in a divided government”and“profound mutual distrust (between Taiwan and the mainland) makes it difficult to restart … political dialogue.”

　　In the longer term, he said, cross-strait relations might be even more volatile because of Beijing's military modernization program.

　　He was testifying on the subject of global threats and challenges to U.S. national security.

　　Another witness at the hearing, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Thomas Wilson, said that the Taiwan issue will remain a“major potential flash point,”particularly in the short term.

　　It is“doubtful”that Beijing would attempt a large-scale military operation to attack Taiwan. Wilson said, unless Taipei “moved more directly toward independence.”

　　He said in a prepared testimony that Beijing recognizes the risk inherent in such a move and is uncertain that it can succeed.

　　“Nevertheless, by 2015,”he said,“China's conventional force modernization will provide an increasingly credible military threat against Taiwan, though probably not the large amphibious capability necessary for invasion.”

　　Commenting on regional issues, the CIA director said that Beijing's drive for recognition as a great power is“one of the toughest challenges”facing the United States.

　　“Beijing's goal of becoming a key world player and especially more powerful in East has come sharply into focus,”Tenet said.