The reports from Ariel Cohen PH.D.
on July 18, 2001. He said that … On July 16, the presidents of
Russia and China signed a Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship and
Cooperation in Moscow. This treaty is the first such agreement between
these two Eurasian powers since Mao Tse-tung signed a treaty with Joseph
Stalin of the U.S.S.R. in 1950, four months before the outbreak of the
Korean War. That treaty had been driven by anti-Western sentiments. The motivations behind this new
treaty are much more complex and involve serious geopolitical, military,
and economic considerations. In a sense, this treaty is a logical product
of the improvement in Sino-Russian relations that began under the last
Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, and continued under Boris Yeltsin. The
treaty should signal to the Western world that a major geopolitical shift
may be taking place in the Eurasian balance of power, with serious
implications for the United States and its alliances. The 2001 Russia-China treaty
covers five important areas of cooperation: ˙Joint actions to offset a perceived
U.S. hegemonism; The treaty comes on the heels of
another recent security arrangement involving these two countries: On June
14, Russia, China, and four Central Asian states announced the creation of
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an arrangement ostensibly
aimed at confronting Islamic radical fundamentalism and promoting economic
development. Together, the agreements portend an important evolving
geopolitical transformation for Russia and China, two regional giants who
are positioning themselves to define the rules under which the United
States, the European Union, Iran, and Turkey will be allowed to
participate in the strategically important Central Asian region. Many analysts point out that while the United States should monitor these developments, there is still no cause for panic. Contradictions in political objectives continue to exist between China and Russia, including Russia's "primordial distrust" of the Chinese, according to Professor James Sherr of Great Britain's Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst. Nonetheless, there is growing concern that the new treaty between Moscow and Beijing may increase coordination between the two countries against the United States. The Bush Administration should
take steps to protect U.S. interests, increase regional security, and
counter the threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
It should, for example, expand intelligence monitoring of the Sino-Russian
strategic partnership, including assessing possible secret codicils in the
treaty. It should boost military and security cooperation with India
and Japan while developing joint efforts with Russia and China to counter
radical Islamic threats in Central Asia. And it should offer Moscow
incentives to scale down its military cooperation with China, especially
with regard to weapons of mass destruction and advanced military
technology. China and Russia first announced
the development of their "strategic partnership" at a Shanghai
summit in April 1996. Since then, they have taken steps to boost this
relationship. During President Jiang Zemin's visit to Moscow in 1997, he
and President Yeltsin committed to promoting a new international policy
based on "multipolarity"--the creation of competing centers of
power as a response to perceived U.S. dominance. They called for the
preservation of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty between the
United States and the former Soviet Union, and they supported lifting the
U.N. Security Council sanctions against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. The desire to counter U.S. global
supremacy and the West's pressure on both countries regarding the rights
of independence-seeking ethnic minorities (and human rights in general)
furnished much of the impetus for a friendship treaty between Russia and
China as well as the creation of the so-called Shanghai-6 Organization (SCO).
The parties of this organization vehemently oppose the policy of NATO-led
"humanitarian interventions," such as the Kosovo war, which was
not sanctioned by the U.N. Security Council. Chairman Jiang has repeatedly
declared that "hegemonism and power politics" are the "main
source of threat to world peace and stability" as well as China's
interests. Beijing is clearly interested in curtailing the U.S.-led
condemnations and sanctions of China for human rights, as in the aftermath
of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Furthermore, Russia and China are
both seeking to safeguard their status as two of the five permanent
members of the U.N. Security Council. Finally, they are working to boost
each other's military potential as well as that of other countries that
pursue anti-American foreign policies, such as Iran and Iraq. The state-run media in
Russia and China often point to "U.S. hegemonism" and "U.S.
power politics," and call for the "establishment of a new
international order" under United Nations tutelage.
Some of the forms of cooperation that have followed such rhetoric clearly
pose a threat to U.S. interests. For example, the Russian and Chinese
navies began conducting joint military exercises in 1999. These maneuvers
included the Russian Pacific Fleet missile cruisers and destroyers as well
as warships from the Chinese Eastern Fleet. The Sino-Russian exercises
this year allegedly included Russian TU-22 bombers equipped with
long-range nuclear-capable cruise missiles flying attack missions against
simulated U.S. forces in East Asia. In view of these actions, the
assertions made by the Chinese and Russians that the new strategic
relationship is not aimed at any one nation have a particularly hollow
ring. More than the formalization of the new treaty, it is the massive
Russian arms sales and WMD-related technology transfers to China that make
the multipolar rhetoric of these new "friends" of particular
concern to the United States and its allies in Asia. A world system that is not
dominated by one country is attractive to both Moscow and Beijing for
similar reasons: Economically, it offers them alternative sources of
technology, financing, and markets for their raw materials, goods, and
services. Moreover, an overburdened U.S. military would pose less of a
risk to Russia and China in the regions where they assert their own power.
Alternative poles of power in which there is a proliferation of weapons of
mass destruction would force the United States to spread its resources
thinly to deal with evolving crises in different regions simultaneously. The reason for Russia's
willingness to support China's security interests and vice versa may lie
in the fact that each country now views the other as its "strategic
rear." Russian leaders have often stated that the threats to Russia
are NATO enlargement to the East and radical Islamic forces active in
Chechnya and among Moscow's Central Asian allies.
Beijing views U.S. predominance in the post-Cold War world--from its
success in the Gulf War to its support of Taiwan security--as Between 1991 and 1996, Russia sold China weapons worth an estimated $1 billion per year. Between 1996 and 2001, the rate of sales doubled to $2 billion per year. Reportedly, the two had signed a military sales package in 1999 that between 2000 and 2004 would be worth $20 billion. China also obtained important know-how through the theft of U.S. warhead designs and guidance systems technology. In 1999, China tested the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and the DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM); it also announced its acquisition of the neutron bomb. It has been suggested that Russian scientists and blueprints were used in developing these and other armaments. China is building a modern air
force to operate over the East China and South China Seas. In 1993-1997,
it acquired 74 SU-27 Flankers and the rights to produce 200 more under a
Russian license. These planes are similar to the American F-14s and F-15s.
Earlier this year, China acquired 40 SU-30 MKK multi-purpose fourth
generation fighter-bombers (a modernized version of the SU-27) as well as
the in-flight refueling capability needed to extend the Flanker's range.
The Chinese military also purchased a license to produce 250 SU-30
fighters domestically. Altogether, China has bought or is planning to
manufacture up to 525 of these combat aircraft. Its air force already has
acquired the over-the-horizon targeting capability that may prove crucial
in future conflicts, and it is seeking airborne early warning capabilities
for wide-area air and naval battle management, most probably by purchasing
the Russian A-50 Beriev. China has clearly achieved
breakthroughs in missile technology by importing systems and prototypes
from Russia. It is deploying S-300 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to
protect ballistic missile bases that could target Taiwan. It is also
developing indigenous SAMs based on Russian designs, such as the S-300,
SA-12, and SA-17 Grizzly. Beijing is emphasizing the
modernization of the People's Liberation Navy as well. It has acquired
four Kilo-class diesel submarines. Most important, Russia has sold Beijing
two Type 956E Sovremenny-class destroyers armed with supersonic,
nuclear-capable, Moskit missiles (SS-N-22). This destroyer-missile system
was designed specifically to hit U.S. aircraft carriers. Some destroyers
to be produced in China are based on Russian know-how. Russia also has
sold China its Kamov Ka-28 (Helix) anti-submarine, destroyer-based
helicopters. Such transfer of knowledge is the
key to China's being successful in upgrading its military potential;
Russia and China have established mechanisms for military technology
transfer and intelligence sharing. Russia even allowed China to use its
space-based global positioning system, known as GLONASS. A real-time
satellite imagery download system may also be in operation. Most worrisome, however, is a
broad program already in place to train military students, scientists, and
engineers. According to Chinese military sources quoted by the Hong Kong
media, up to 1,500 Russian scientists work in China's design and
production facilities. China is clearly on track to a comprehensive
upgrading of its defense research, development, and production programs. The relationship between China and
Russia is symbiotic. China is acquiring capabilities to counter U.S. naval
and air power in the Far East and intimidate neighbors like Taiwan. Russia
is seeking to become a regional rival to the United States, maintaining
its defense industrial base and using money from arms sales to China and
others to modernize its own armed forces. However, cooperation
between the two countries is not limited to military technology and
production. I thought that is worth to
concern about Chinese court sentenced two U.S.-based scholars. We doubted
that Qin Guangguang and Gao Zhan both collected intelligence for spy
agencies in Taiwan. Unfortunately, Taiwan have
lost too many spy agencies by pro-Beijing’s defection. Why? July
26, 2001 --- Quoting military sources, the Ming
Pao Daily News said that Beijing's recent successful bid to host the 2008
Olympics has not changed its policy of seeking reunification with Taiwan,
and that it will use force if necessary. The military is said to expect
President Jiang Zemin, also the chairman of the Central Military
Commission (CMC), to work even harder for reunification after China's
imminent entry into the World Trade Organisation in a few months. China's largest combined-arms
exercise ever, which is centred on Dongshan Island in the Taiwan Strait,
is now overseen by General Fu Quanyou, chief of staff of the People's
Liberation Army. He is accompanied by several other
military officials, including those in charge of logistics, political
education and acquisition. General Zhang Wannian, the CMC
vice-chairman, will also attend the exercise on the eve of People's
Liberation Army Day on Aug 1. Details of the exercise will be
disclosed then, Ming Pao said. Over the past two months, China
has periodically praised the wargames, which involve several military
districts and a variety of arms, as 'high in morale and showing high level
of expertise'. The latest exercise, code-named
'Dongshan VI', is said to involve 100,000 military troops. The sources said it is larger in
scale than the preceding five exercises, as it brings together the land,
sea and air forces. It also deploys, for the first
time, new electronic weapons and technology capable of neutralizing the
National Missile Defense which the United States is developing allegedly
for countering, above all, threats from China. Beijing’s purpose is one
definite way that how to instead of United States as a new hegemony in
Asia-Pacific region. China is believed to have
installed hundreds of missiles within range of Taiwan over the past
several years. US President George W. Bush has said the US will do
whatever it takes to defend Taiwan. Also worrisome for the US is North
Korea’s seeming unwillingness to match its policy of diplomatic outreach
with restraint on the military side. The North maintains about 700,000
troops and 8,000 artillery systems within 145km of the Demilitarized Zone
that separates it from South Korea. The North’s 1.2 million-member army
is the world’s fifth largest. First, China and Russia have led opposition to the ambitious US project to build a space-based missile defense shield to ward off incoming missile attacks from so-called “rogue states” such as North Korea and Iraq. Second, in a clear message
to Washington that Russia and China will act together to counter its role
as the world’s only superpower, Jiang said that only an international
order based on “equality” could guarantee global peace. The international community has
adopted a rather lenient standard in judging China’s human-rights
practices. The US government expresses its appreciation when Beijing
convicts and expels a US academic on trumped-up charges of espionage,
forgetting that China should not have seized the scholar in the first
place. The world tends to close its eyes to the plight of the several
million prisoners languishing in labor camps. The incarcerated include
many dissidents and religious practitioners. While Slobodan Milosevic faces
trial at the International Criminal Court at the Hague for ethnic
cleansing committed by the Serbs in Kosovo, few people have paid attention
to the 1.25 million Tibetans who have perished over the years under
China’s relentless campaign of genocide. The reasons for the double
standard are obvious. China is a rising regional power. There are no easy means of
pressuring China to respect the civil rights of its citizens or
minorities. Also, business interests from all corners of the globe have
been seduced by the prospects of profits in the Chinese market. It is not
hard to understand why trade has been delinked from human rights. We believed one thing that
only country’s power could protect people’s human rights over
Beijing’s violation. “The world believes that because
China will host the Olympics it will improve its human rights record. But
China’s record since [the Tiananmen massacre] shows that it has very
little ability to change or improve,” Chin said. “Their handling of
Falun Gong is unlikely to change either, it will just be carried out in a
more quiet manner.” Falun Gong says at least 250
followers have died from police brutality since July 1999, more than half
of them in the past six months. The Hong Kong-based Information Center for
Human Rights and Democracy says it has confirmed 153 deaths in the
crackdown. Tens of thousands of followers
have been detained for protesting in Tiananmen Square in that period. Falun Gong, which is based on
elements of Taoism, Buddhism and traditional Chinese meditation and
exercises, has denied that the five self-immolators belonged to the
movement. One of the thoughts in favor of Beijing’s bid for the Olympic Games lies in the assumption that by becoming more involved in the international community, China could learn how to behave as a responsible country. If this assumption proves correct,
Chen should seize the momentum by asking his counterparts to show their
willingness to return to the negotiation table. In this regard, China’s
hosting of the Games could be a window of opportunity for cross-strait
dialogue. Most importantly, among his seven
points Qian did not drop the option of using force to reunify with Taiwan,
but instead he stressed Beijing wanted a peaceful reunification. China’s
refusal to renounce the use of force against a democratic Taiwan is a
great disgrace to the spirit of the Olympic Games. Chen should take
advantage of this chance to call for more peaceful and warfree
relationship across the Taiwan Strait. In short, President Chen’s
good manners with Beijing need reality of military force in island that
relating to United States’ support.
Yours Sincerely,
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