Dear Mr. President George W. Bush,

Many signs revealed that conflict could start from cross-strait’s problems.

* November1987: Taiwan and China embark on cautious path of rapprochement, starting with family visits.

* May 1991: Taiwan renounces use of force to retake the mainland, paving the way for unofficial talks.

* April 1993: Taiwanese and Chinese negotiators hold landmark talks in Singapore.

* January 1995: Chinese President Jiang Zemin calls for high-level talks and exchanges to end hostilities. Taiwan rejects overture.

* June 1995: President Lee Teng-hui makes private US trip, enraging Beijing. China suspends talks and holds massive war games.

* October 1998: Taiwan envoy Koo Chen-fu visits China and meets Jiang in the highest-level contact between two sides in nearly five decades.

* July 1999: Lee enrages China by redefining bilateral ties as being "state to state" in nature. Beijing again freezes talks.

* January 2001: Taiwan opens direct but limited trade and travel links with China.

* Aug. 26, 2001: The Economic Development Advisory Conference unveils wide-ranging recommendations, including easing caps on investment in China and pushing for direct trade and transport links.

Unfortunately, all talks would be nothing by Beijing’s “one China principle” in which Taiwan R.O.C will be terminated.

After all, opening up to China is not just Taiwan’s decision to make, it also depends on the degree to which China is willing to work with Taiwan to create the necessary bilateral mechanisms for such an opening to take place.

The conference’s conclusions now put China in an interesting quandary. The New Party, Beijing’s de facto representatives at the conference, failed, thanks goodness, to get the conference to endorse a return to the so-called “1992 consensus” – actually it was a lack of consensus – under which Taiwan adhered to the “one China” principle – to its immense diplomatic damage for the rest of the decade.

Hardliners in Beijing insist on Taiwan’s reiteration of the “one China” principle as the price Taiwan has to pay for the kind of talks needed to enable the openings endorsed by the conference. Obviously Taiwan cannot and must not do this, for to do so would be tantamount to renouncing its status as an independent sovereignty.

On the other hand, a contending school of thought claims that the best way to lure Taiwan back into the fold is to further its economic dependence on China – for which China would presumably facilitate Taiwanese businesses to “boldly march west.” The irony is that this is exactly the reason why “no haste, be patient” was adopted in the first place.

China has to decide how tough it wants to be, and its slowing growth is likely to have some impact on that decision. If it decides to be cooperative, Taiwan has to understand that this is not because Beijing’s respect for Taiwan’s people or political or economic system has increased, but because China believes that Taiwan is walking into exactly the trap that the perhaps soon-to-be-ditched restrictions were supposed to protect it from.

They won’t forget this. Neither should we.

A national policy advisor as long-time independence activist Alice King said on Aug. 24, 2001 that she supports the efforts of former president Lee Teng-hui to establish the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU).

"No one else can lead Taiwan better than Lee," said King, a Tokyo-based national policy adviser. "I appreciate him. He is a trump card and it's a pity not to use him."

King made the comments at a press conference for her two new books. "I support the TSU, as we share the same ideology. But at the moment they haven't contacted me to stump for them," she said.

But while she supports the new political group, King said she wouldn't consider running as a legislative candidate on the TSU ticket.

"My only job is to promote interaction between Taiwan and Japan. No one can do this job better than me," she said.

King is a long-time independence advocate and was barred by the KMT government from returning to Taiwan between 1961 and 1992.

Her refusal to acknowledge herself as a citizen of the Republic of China has irritated pro-unification lawmakers, who have called for her dismissal from her government post.

In short, many Taiwanese are on the same ideas as Mr. King.

The US should defend Taiwan because, as "the world's only functioning Chinese democracy," the nation could serve as a beacon of democracy for China, Chairman of the US House International Relations Committee Henry Hyde said on Aug. 24, 2001.

"Instead of backing away from Taiwan, we should hold its democracy up as an inspiring example to all of China," Hyde told members of the Chinese National Association of Industry and Commerce during a luncheon talk in Taipei.

"We must protect it, not only because we have a duty to come to the defense of freedom, but because it provides tangible hope that the world's largest nation, with its ancient and profound civilization, will one day enter the ranks of the free nations of the world," the Republican from Illinois said.

"Taiwan's mere existence as a prosperous and stable Chinese democracy is a challenge to the regime in Beijing because it is proof that its propaganda about the impossibility of democracy in China is false," Hyde said.

Hyde said Taiwan's economic success could convince Beijing that "a Western, market-oriented economic model would work in China."

"It's time for Taiwan's democratic model to have the same effect, only this time the audience is the Chinese population," Hyde added.

Hyde also denounced the view that Taiwan is a liability to the US, saying, "Although some have grown used to regarding Taiwan as a liability, this approach obscures Taiwan's true importance. For a free and uncoerced Taiwan is of immense strategic importance to the US and to the world as a whole, perhaps an irreplaceable one.

"In fact, a free Taiwan is the key to the possibility of genuinely close relations between the US and China, and a guarantee that China's growing impact on the international system will be a positive one," Hyde added.

Beijing is now a major battlefield in Taiwanese domestic political affairs as China attempts to lure opposition politicians and businessmen, warned a leading American scholar in Taipei on Aug. 29, 2001.

"This is very damaging to Taipei to provide Beijing with an opportunity to divide and conquer," said Ralph A. Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum, an affiliate of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Cossa made the statement during his presentation on "New Development in US Asia-Pacific Policy" in the third conference of the Asia-Pacific Security Forum held in Taipei on Aug. 28, 2001.

Cossa also defended a recent article published on the CSIS Web site which cited Chinese analysts as saying that many KMT delegations to China in the past year have urged Beijing to avoid opening dialogue with President Chen Shui-bian.

"I've heard the same thing from officials in China. At least Bonnie [ S. Glaser, the author of the article] has accurately reported what Chinese officials said to her," Cossa said in the two-day conference.

Glaser cited Chinese analysts in her article entitled, "China's Taiwan Policy:" Still Listening and Watching as saying that "scores of KMT delegations visiting China in the past year have urged it to avoid opening a dialogue with Chen that might strengthen his position and increase his chances for re-election."

Next, members of the Taiwan media overly glorify China. China's problems cannot be seen through the media. In contrast, most coverage about Taiwan is negative. Taiwan's industries therefore hold illusions about China, which causes a massive emigration to China. The emigration in turn causes serious capital outflows and aggravates the crisis. Of course, perhaps the media's negative coverage is intended to compel action by the government. But the opposite is often achieved. If the media continues to blacken our own country and society, Taiwan can only become worthless. Such conduct not only endangers the country and society at large, but also indirectly harms ourselves.

No security no media freedom of the press. To commemorate Journalists' Day, President Chen Shui-bian on Aug. 30, 2001 held talks over tea with local reporters and encouraged them to weigh national security while upholding the freedom of the press.

"The pursuit of 100 percent freedom of press and speech has to be made with the precondition of safeguarding the country's national security," Chen said.

President Chen Shui-bian on Aug. 29, 2001 reiterated his desire to attend October's APEC summit in Shanghai, saying the informal leadership meeting presents an excellent opportunity for cross-strait dialogue.

"The meeting is a window of opportunity to allow the two sides' leaders to enter dialogue," Chen said as he received two visiting US congressmen.

"I would be very happy to personally attend the summit, which is the right that all members of APEC enjoy in accordance with the principle of equality."

Chen made his remarks during his meeting at the Presidential Office with US congressmen Joseph Hoeffel and Peter King.

In Beijing’s side, enhancing its national dignity and continued economic development are China's goals. Its concrete goal is to become a leading country on the international stage. Beijing's successful Olympic bid has in a way satisfied this goal and temporarily assuaged nationalistic impulses.

China's possible WTO entry at the end of this year and the Olympic Games, however, will be major tests of the party's ability to handle economic affairs. The last time the party demonstrated its ability to handle economic matters was during the Asian financial crisis. At that time, China weathered the storm by defending the renminbi. But the WTO challenge is different.

WTO entry involves a conflict between the state's economic interests and the interests of society. On top of this, entry will also coincide with a transfer of political power to a new generation of leaders. What is needed is a fully development-oriented government, which will focus on economic development, raise the status of technocrats by a large margin, and pay relatively less attention to ideology. The party's decision to allow capitalists into the party is an indication that the party is moving towards a development-oriented government.

Among the examples of successful modernization in other countries, Singapore is very likely to become a model for China. Singapore boasts impressive economic success and the government directly guides that success. However, its government has played a very strong and controversial role in issues like human rights. Like China, Singapore also promotes the concept of opposing Western values, as evident in the "Asian values" championed by senior minister Lee Kuan Yew.

For the Communist Party, now is a crucial moment in consolidating its social foundations. In the past, the party's social control mechanisms were built into the country's factories, schools and neighborhood. The unit and household registration systems are some examples. With economic liberalization, however, more and more people (especially the middle class) are now working for joint ventures or foreign companies, which are outside the party's control. This problem will become even more serious after WTO entry.

In an environment in which economic development has become an unstoppable tide, the party can only remold the legitimacy of its rule. As for national dignity, the party may use a phrase like "Chinese values" to cover its old nationalism (including its anti-US and anti-Japanese content) so as to persuade its people to embrace the party's new objectives.

In the 1930s, the author Lu Xun coined the term "nalai zhuyi", the principle of taking whatever is useful) to criticize people who try to imitate others and forget themselves in the process.

By viewing Singapore more and more as its guru, the party appears to have forgotten that there is a resemblance between China's existing problems and those of the former Soviet Union, particularly in the form of capitalists who struck it rich through their political connections, and of similar massive, uncompetitive state-owned corporations.

To solve these problems, China needs a highly efficient government built on the rule of law. Whether imitation will become another example of "nalai zhuyi" remains to be seen that Taiwan could be a “chip” over China transformation.

Ralph A. Cossa, President of the Pacific Forum, an affiliate of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said that: when I talked to the Chinese, they told me that when people from the KMT and the New Party come to China ... the feeling they are getting is, "We'll be back in control and we are the kind of people you can deal with," which I find very ironic because it was the KMT that was the big "splittist" two years ago. I think that the Chinese are getting a false sense of security based on developing assessments of what's going on in Taiwan from opposition politicians and business people.

What I told the Chinese officials is that they should be attempting to begin a dialogue with President Chen. And the part of Bonnie Glaser's report (a recent CSIS paper by Glaser which cited Chinese analysts saying that visiting KMT members urged China to take a hard line against Chen) that was overlooked was that one of the four legs of China's strategy is to try to have some type of low-level contact and dialogue even with the administration. But they are keeping it at a very low level.

My sense is that everyone on the mainland and perhaps everyone here is waiting to see how things play out in the year-end elections ... whether the DPP and Lee Teng-hui's quasi-party come up with enough of a coalition that they can stay and move forward, or whether the non-Lee Teng-hui KMT and James Soong can create some sort of coalition that will increase their own political power and put more pressure on Chen to be forthcoming with the mainland.

My sense is that China is confused about Taiwan politics ... They (Taiwan's opposition parties) wanted last year to talk about impeachment, but it's really not impeachment talk at all. It was aimed at trying to force Chen into a coalition with the sympathetic elements of the KMT, the Lee Teng-hui faction. And that's still part of this game that's being played out. Coalition politics is not something that the mainland has much history of understanding, so it's very difficult for them to understand what's going on in Taiwan.

For about the United States, from report that two men have been arrested and accused of scheming to smuggle military encryption technology to China, the US Customs Service said on Aug. 30, 2001.   

We don’t want to see that the US will soon be threatened by long-rang missiles from unstable nations, speakers at a major military-issues conference said, as Pentagon and industry participants met to figure not how to help save the nation – and benefit from an expected flood of government resources.

With some US$8 billion earmarked for missile defense in next year’s military budget, aerospace industry reps met with military brass and civilian missile experts this week for a three-day summit to figure out how to turn US President George W. Bush’s vision of an antimissile shield into reality.

Missile defense “is one of the true growth areas in the department of defense,” said Alfred Bills, an analyst with TASC Inc, a subsidiary of defense giant Northrop-Grumman. “There is real new added emphasis in recognition of the threat.”

The reports from the Washington Times on August 28, 2001 ---

China has stepped up deployments of short-range missiles opposite Taiwan and now has more than 350 rockets within range of the island, The Washington Times has learned. 

New missile deployments were discovered by U.S. intelligence agencies at Yongan, in Fujian province, and at Jiangshan an existing base disclosed for the first time as a missile site, said U.S. intelligence and military officials.

China added more than 30 new CSS-6 and CSS-7 missiles within range of Taiwan in a buildup that U.S. officials say is increasing tensions and destabilizing the region.

"They are on track with adding 50 new missiles a year," said a senior Pentagon official.

Asked about the missile buildup, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said in an interview yesterday that the missile buildup is destabilizing.

"They have been doing that steadily for a number of years now," Mr. Wolfowitz said.

The missile deployments contradict China's commitment to a 1982 communique with the United States that said Beijing's fundamental policy is a "peaceful resolution" of its differences with Taiwan.

"And I don't see that building up your missiles is part of a fundamental policy of peaceful resolution," Mr. Wolfowitz said. Any attempt by China to intimidate Taiwan will not work because the United States is firmly resolved to prevent the forcible reunification of the island with the mainland, Mr. Wolfowitz said.

The latest deployments put the total number of short-range missiles within range of Taiwan at around 350, an increase of 50 missiles since the spring.

A senior White House official who briefed reporters on the administration's proposed arms sales to Taiwan said in April that there were 300 short-range missiles opposite Taiwan. China's military will deploy a total of around 600 missiles by 2005, the senior official said.

According to the intelligence officials, some of the new missiles were identified as CSS-6 Mod 2s a longer-range version of a missile also known as the M-9. The other new missiles were identified as CSS-7s, also known as M-11s.

Both missiles have a maximum range of around 372 miles, according to the officials.

"All the new deployments are within range of Taiwan," said one official.

The new missiles were identified by launch pads that were recently constructed and identified by U.S. spy satellites last month near the towns of Jiangshan and Yongan.

Yongan was the base used by Chinese military forces to fire test missiles north and south of Taiwan during what became known as the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis. The United States responded by dispatching two aircraft carrier battle groups to the region.

Jiangshan was identified for the first time as a short-range missile base although officials said it was not a new base.

U.S. intelligence agencies provided different counts of the numbers of new missiles.

One military intelligence agency stated in a classified report that 30 new missiles were identified at Jiangshan, located about 240 miles southwest of Shanghai, and the rest at Yongan, in Fujian province about 220 miles from Taiwan.

A second military intelligence agency stated that most of the new missiles were deployed at Yongan, with only a small number fielded at Jiangshan.

The Chinese have three other short-range missile bases within range of Taiwan in addition to Yongan and Jiangshan. They include the missile brigade headquarters at Leping, and two bases at Xianyou, about 125 miles from Taiwan, and Nanping, about 230 miles from Taiwan.

U.S. intelligence spotted the missile units as they were sent by railroad from Leping to Fujian province during China's large-scale war games in the region, which concluded last week.

China's military forces did not fire any CSS-6s or CSS-7s during the exercises. However, a medium-range CSS-2 missile was test-fired Aug. 21.

Pentagon officials said the Chinese missiles are deployed in "brigades" that typically have 16 transporter-erector launchers and a stockpile of up to 97 missiles. Most of the missiles and launchers are stored in hardened underground bunkers designed to withstand strikes by precision-guided weapons, the officials said.

Richard Fisher, a specialist on the Chinese military, said the latest deployments show Beijing is continuing to threaten Taiwan.

"China is increasing the missile threat against Taiwan and now with this northern deployment it has the option of threatening U.S. forces that may come to Taiwan's defense," said Mr. Fisher, a military analyst with the private Jamestown Foundation.

"I think that's significant."

Mr. Fisher noted that the missile buildup is continuing while both the United States and Taiwan lack effective regional anti-missile defenses.

Assistant Defense Secretary Peter Rodman recently said China's buildup is one argument pushing the United States toward missile defenses.

"I ... have not seen restraint in China's missile deployments, and it is certainly something we raised with them," Mr. Rodman said. "They raised the question of missile defense, and I think a reasonable answer to make to them is, 'Well, the missile defense is prompted by the fact that there are missiles.'"

Chen Shui-bian, president of the Republic of China (Taiwan), said in an interview in July that the United States, Japan and Taiwan should cooperate in building regional missile defenses to counter China's missile buildup.

On August 26, a plenary session of the Economic Development Advisory Conference (EDAC) passed a resolution to abandon the government's "no haste, be patient" policy in favor of the "three links," creating a big controversy and a multi-dimensional, society-wide crisis of unprecedented gravity.

First of all, abandoning the "no haste, be patient" policy will be a direct blow to Taiwan's economic future, tantamount to a declaration of its own death sentence. The fundamental challenge confronting Taiwan's economy is the question of how to respond to the inexorable trend of economic globalization. Overcoming the difficulties posed by that challenge and opening up new horizons for economic development entails an extremely complex, far-reaching program of economic restructuring, including improvement of the investment environment, adjustments and reforms to enterprises' organizational and operational structures, enhancement of international competitiveness, etc., etc. Because such torturous restructuring requires a "no pain, no gain" courage and enthusiasm which all too many persons in leadership positions lack, they indulge in wishful dreams of embracing China's feet in order to escape the pressures of economic globalization and the need for painful reforms. It is such a deluded, cowardly mindset that has prompted their orchestrated full-scale frontal assault upon the government, demanding that it jettison its "no haste, be patient" policy.

Should the government surrender to this demand, it will not only encourage enterprises to "take the money to China and leave the debts in Taiwan" and thereby ignite a nation-wide employment-cum-banking crisis, but will bespeak Taiwan society's refusal to face up to the challenge of economic reform and innovation, its denial of the need to treat the disease rather than its symptoms, and its submission to social decay. The end result of this path can only be sudden death for Taiwan's economy.

Secondly, opening up the "three links" portends a total collapse of Taiwan's security safeguard. Precipitous opening up of a "three links" over which the government has no hope of control through so-called "effective management" measures -- having failed first to eliminate China's military threat and conspiracy to absorb Taiwan, to secure international guarantees of Taiwan's security, or rectify the Taiwan financial sector's structural weaknesses -- will serve only to totally undermine Taiwan's national security framework, leaving it fewer and fewer cards to play in its attempt to resist China's ever-mounting pressure and blackmail.

Furthermore, abandonment of the "no haste, be patient" policy in favor of a full-blown "three links" policy will create a vicious circle, precipitating a loss of faith in the government and political instability, which in turn can only accelerate the expatriation of Taiwan's enterprises and worsening of unemployment.

Institution of the three links will deliver a sudden, massive blow to Taiwan enterprises dependent for survival on the prosperity of the common citizen, making a tidal wave of bankruptcies and business closures hard to avoid. Resultantly, this will provoke labor, small- and middle-size businesses, the urban educated elite, plus the 3/4 and more of the population who oppose merger with China to join in abandoning the Democratic Progressive Party-led government, leading directly to ignominious defeat in the upcoming year-end legislative election, collapse of the Chen Shui-bian government's legitimacy, and defeat of the DDP in the presidential election 3 years hence.

The advent of a Taiwan which has lost control over its own economic destiny and security, led by a government perceived as illegitimate, will be a Taiwan which has lost the will and the ability to resist any of Beijing's demands and conditions. A Taiwan whiningly subservient to Chinese totalitarianism will have taken the place of a proud bastion of freedom and democracy in the Western Pacific.

We have heard about the reporter Bill Gertz said in the Washington Times on Aug. 29, 2001. We thought he got the key point of truth …

China is "almost certain" to become a superpower this century and could emerge as a threat to the United States, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz says.

The No. 2 Pentagon official also said China's dispute with Taiwan is the central point of U.S.-Chinese relations. The United States is firmly committed to seeing the issue be resolved without force, he said.

"I would say overall we're concerned about the direction of Chinese policy, and the developments we see there," Mr. Wolfowitz said in an interview with The Washington Times.

"I think the right way to think about China is that it's a country that is almost certain to become a superpower in the next half-century, and maybe in the next quarter-century, and that's pretty fast by historical standards."

The question is whether the emerging China will live at peace with its neighbors "or will it go the way of traditional power diplomacy, which I think in this era with these weapons would be tragic mistake for everybody," he said.

"I don't think China has to be a threat, but I think if we're complacent, then we could actually contribute to the opposite effect."

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld took a similar position in a recent interview. "My view of China is that its future is not written, and it is being written," he said.

The deputy defense secretary said he is concerned China might miscalculate by underestimating the U.S. resolve to defend Taiwan from being taken by force.

"We can more than adequately back up the commitments that are enshrined in the Taiwan Relations Act and which the president affirmed," Mr. Wolfowitz said. "So the Chinese would be making a great mistake if they thought they could settle this thing on their terms by using force."

President Bush said several months ago that the United States would do "whatever it took" to defend democratic Taiwan from an attack by communist China under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act. The law states that the United States would prevent the forcible reunification of the island with the mainland.

China has said it hopes to resolve the issue peacefully but has been building up its forces opposite the island, which it views as a breakaway region.

Mr. Wolfowitz, a former ambassador to Indonesia who is considered the Bush administration's most experienced Asia hand, said both Mr. Bush and Mr. Rumsfeld have been "very clear" that the United States will defend Taiwan from Chinese attack.

"Indeed, I think the country as a whole is united on that," he said.

"In some ways, it's the central point of U.S.-China relations," Mr. Wolfowitz said. "Looking to the future, I think it's terribly important that everybody behave sensibly and maturely and keep that situation ... a peaceful one, which it has been for quite a long time now."

Asked about a report in The Washington Times that China has increased the total number of missiles opposite Taiwan to over 300, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said yesterday: "I would point out what the [defense] secretary said when he was in China, what other U.S. officials have frequently said that China's deployments obviously have an effect in how we see the balance and stability of the situation there."

Mr. Wolfowitz said the continuing buildup of short-range missiles opposite Taiwan violates Beijing's pledge to resolve the standoff with the island peacefully. "I also don't believe that that effort at intimidation will ultimately succeed," he said.

Asked the prospects of China's communist leaders making political reforms in the future, Mr. Wolfowitz said that "over the long run the Chinese political system is going to have to  change."

"Does that mean it will quickly or overnight? Absolutely not," he said. "And I don't particularly like being associated with theories of economic inevitability because so many of them have been wrong in the past."

Taiwan, by contrast, is a model of both economic and democratic reform, he said, something that makes the communist leaders in Beijing "uncomfortable."

Taiwan's system shows that for one of the first times in four millennia of Chinese history "you have a Chinese entity governed democratically," Mr. Wolfowitz said.

"And it's a stirring example, and to some people on the mainland, it's probably a disturbing example."

So, Taiwan needs your support in time.

                                                                 Yours Sincerely,