US Congress report downplays China's rise, 'soft power'

AGENCIES, WASHINGTON AND BEIJING
Wednesday, May 07, 2008, Page 1

Cash-flush China may be winning allies and displacing US influence by ramping up foreign investments and disbursing aid with no strings attached, but a US congressional study says Washington need not lose sleep over it.

Beijing’s rising investments on the back of its huge pool of US dollar reserves is not necessarily always popular at home or abroad and accounts for less than 1 percent of foreign direct investment worldwide, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) study said.

Furthermore, China’s “soft power” achievements using tools such as trade and investment, development and humanitarian aid, cultural influence and travel and tourism are built on a “very narrow base,” it said.

And even in those areas, including disaster relief, China’s effort and accomplishments “pale beside those of the United States,” the report said.

The study, undertaken by a group of China specialists and regional analysts, examined the strengths and weaknesses of China’s foreign policy and growing use of “soft power” in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

“Contrary to some projections of China’s ability to displace American influence through the use of soft power, the CRS report indicates that China must grapple with many limitations on its influence,” said Senate Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, Senator Joseph Biden, who commissioned the study.

While China uses soft power to increase its economic and political leverage globally, Beijing’s success “has been mixed and its influence remains modest,” Senator Biden said.

China is attempting to exploit areas in which it holds a comparative advantage to increase its influence, sometimes in a way that runs counter to US interests, the study said.

For example, it said China’s willingness to provide no-strings-attached foreign aid “often undermines international efforts to combat corruption, improve transparency, and foster respect for human rights.”

On the plus side, however, China’s involvement in Africa, for example, was spurring investment in infrastructure, the financial services and manufacturing as well as market niches that non-Chinese foreign investors had generally long ignored.

The study noted that while China’s state-owned assets “may be obedient to state authority,” the US’ private sector left a “substantial global footprint,” sometimes overlooked by those comparing only government-directed overseas initiatives.

SUB BASE

Meanwhile, China yesterday refused to be drawn on a photograph that Jane’s Information Group analysts believe is evidence of a new underground nuclear submarine base off Hainan Province.

Jane’s said high-resolution commercially available satellite imagery from DigitalGlobe was independent verification of previous suggestions that China is constructing an underground nuclear submarine base near the city of Sanya.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang (秦剛) would neither confirm nor deny the report.

“China is going down the road of peaceful development. China’s national defense policy is defensive. Other countries have no reason to fear, or make a fuss about it and be prickly,” Qin told a regular news conference.

US experts expect little change in Taiwan, US ties
　

By Jenny W. Hsu
STAFF REPORTER
Wednesday, May 07, 2008, Page 3

The next US administration is unlikely to make any groundbreaking move on the Taiwan issue, but the future of Taiwan-US relations remains promising, US academics said yesterday, while urging the incoming Taiwanese government to work on conveying a unified voice in Washington to consolidate support.

The academics in Washington made the comments during a videoconference organized by the American Institute in Taiwan.

The US is limited by its own “one China” policy and its increasingly complex relations with the People’s Republic of China, but the “incoming administration, no matter who is elected, will adhere to the current framework,” said Bonnie Glaser, a senior associate at the Hawaii-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

However, Washington and Taipei should hold more regular consultations and resume dialogue with the National Security Council on security issues, Glaser said.

Such interactions would serve the mutual interests of both sides, she added.

Glaser encouraged president-elect Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to stay away from any ideological rhetoric that could rock the warming triangular relationship between the US, Taiwan and China.

Robert Sutter, a visiting professor from Georgetown University and a specialist on Asia-Pacific affairs and US foreign policy, urged Ma’s team to be pragmatic by seeking incremental progress in ameliorating Taiwan-US relations, instead of pining for a rapid breakthrough.

What Washington wants, he said, is stability.

But what Taiwan needs is to dispatch a representative to Washington with a centrist approach to unify the voices of the various supporters of Taiwan, Sutter said

Moreover, Taiwan needs to follow a “pragmatic strategy” in its defense efforts.

Alan Romberg, senior distinguished fellow of the Stimson Center, said that lifting the ban on visits to the US by high-ranking Taiwanese officials might not serve Taiwan’s interest because such action could create mistrust between Beijing and Washington.

Romberg said the US would not challenge nor accept, but only acknowledge China’s “one China” policy. However, the US has been and will continue to lobby for Taiwan’s membership in international bodies that do not require statehood as well as increasingly meaningful engagement in organizations open only to sovereign states.

The US, Taiwan and China could try to work out a new formulation to ensure a seat for Taiwan at the IMF and the World Bank, which was one of the promises Ma made during his campaign.

Glaser and Sutter echoed Romberg’s view on restrictions on high-level meetings between Taiwanese and US officials, saying that the breakdown in communications between Taipei and Washington over the past eight years was not a direct result of the travel ban, but rather because of disagreements over policies and interests.

On the sale of F-16 C/D fighters to Taiwan, Shutter said it would be useful if Taiwan could work constructively on the Bush administration to persuade it that Taiwan has an effective defense strategy and that the advanced jet fighters are important to that strategy.

He contended that if the sale is not approved before the Bush administration hands over power to the new government, it would be much harder for the new US administration to approve such a sale.

“The reason being is that pressure from the People’s Republic of China will be very strong because they want to be assured of the orientation of the new US administration and will be very sensitive to actions the US takes, more sensitive than it would be with the Bush administration,” he said.

US group 'concerned' over KMT victory
　

APPREHENSION: The World Taiwanese Congress defined 'status quo' as meaning that countries on both sides of the Strait are sovereign and do not belong to each other
　

By Charles Snyder
STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
Wednesday, May 07, 2008, Page 4

"Therefore, the outcome of the election did not indicate that the people of Taiwan have abandoned Taiwan's sovereignty, nor agreed with the one-China framework for the status of Taiwan."— World Taiwanese Congress

The governing body of the World Taiwanese Congress (WTC) demanded at a meeting on Sunday that president-elect Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) new government insist on the “one country on each side” of the Taiwan Strait principle when dealing with China and not abandon the move toward the “normalization” of Taiwan as a state.

The Coordinating Committee of the pro-independence organization, made up of dozens of mostly Taiwanese-American associations, expressed their “great concern” over the future of Taiwan in the wake of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) sweep of the presidential and legislative elections.

“Due to the apprehension that Taiwan’s incoming government has already shown a tendency to forfeit the Taiwanization movement and resurrect the ghost of authoritarianism, WTC demands strongly that Taiwan’s officials must be loyal to Taiwan, insist on the ‘one country on each side’ status quo and continue to deepen Taiwan’s democracy,” it said.

The WTC was founded in 2000 after the election of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) to help promote the sovereignty of Taiwan. It was composed of some 60 organizations and had its first Annual Convention in Taipei in March 2001, which included a speech by Chen.

In a statement after its meeting in Washington on Saturday and Sunday — its first since the Democratic Progressive Party’s crushing defeats at the polls — the committee said it defined the “status quo” as meaning that Taiwan is a “sovereign and independent country,” that China and Taiwan “do not belong to each other, that Taiwan is free and democratic and that the Taiwan Strait is peaceful and stable.

It made three proposals: a change in the names of Taiwan’s diplomatic offices abroad and of government-run enterprises, the “normalization” of Taiwan’s international relations and the “internationalization of the relationship between Taiwan and China.”

It pointed to post-presidential election polls that show “the great majority of Taiwanese people believe that Taiwan is a sovereign and independent nation, and that Taiwan and China are two separate countries.”

“Therefore, the outcome of the election did not indicate that the people of Taiwan have abandoned Taiwan’s sovereignty, nor agreed with the one-China framework for the status of Taiwan,” the organization said.

It also criticized the Taiwanese media for underplaying Chen’s accomplishments, inflating Ma’s image and having “downplayed and belittled Taiwan.” It said the majority of press and TV news outlets in Taiwan are controlled by or beholden to the KMT.

Hu lauds closer relations with Tokyo
　

TENUOUS TIES: While Hu Jintao spoke of friendship, skeptics cast doubts on whether the visit could narrow disagreements over issues ranging from trade to Taiwan

AGENCIES, TOKYO
Wednesday, May 07, 2008, Page 5

Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) lauded closer cooperation with Japan when he arrived yesterday for a state visit intended to nurture trust between the Asian powers despite rifts over energy resources and security.

Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura personally went to Tokyo’s Haneda airport to greet Hu, who smiled and waved as more than 200 Chinese chanted “Welcome! Welcome!” and offered him bouquets of flowers. Downtown, some 7,000 police were deployed ahead of threatened protests by hundreds of right-wing activists who see China as a danger.

But China is promoting itself as a friendly neighbor after years of feuding over Japan’s handling of its wartime aggression, and Hu has stressed forward-looking goals for his five days of ceremony, speeches and deals.

“Japan and China are both important countries in Asia and the world,” Hu said in a statement issued on arrival. “Through this visit, I hope to increase mutual trust, reinforce our friendship and deepen our cooperation.

China’s second ever state visit to Japan comes as it seeks to calm international tensions over Tibetan unrest, which has threatened to mar Beijing’s Olympic Games, a showcase of national pride.

With the two economies increasingly intertwined, Hu said better ties were important to both countries’ prosperity.

“I sincerely hope for generations of friendship between the people of China and Japan,” Hu wrote in a message to Japanese readers of a Chinese magazine, Xinhua news agency reported.

Cooperation has “brought real benefits to the people of both countries and spurred the growth and development of each,” Hu said. “These achievements are worth treasuring by the people of China and Japan.”

The Beijing Games were “Asia’s Olympics and the world’s Olympics,” Hu added.

Certainly much is at stake in ties between Asia’s two biggest economies. China replaced the US as Japan’s top trade partner last year, with two-way trade worth US$236.6 billion, up 12 percent from 2006.

But while China’s fast growth offers opportunities, Beijing’s accompanying expansion in diplomatic and military reach has stirred deeper anxieties in Japan over disputed energy resources, military power and the safety standards of Chinese exports.

“Although the iceberg between China and Japan has melted, fully warming relations require further efforts from both sides,” a commentator wrote in China’s People’s Daily yesterday.

The political climax of Hu’s visit is set to be a summit today with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, when they hope to unveil a joint blueprint for managing ties in coming years. But it was unclear whether the avowals of friendship would narrow disagreements or merely bathe them in warm words.

Japanese media reports said touchy references in the document to Taiwan, human rights and Japan’s hopes for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council were still under negotiation.

The two country’s are also quarrelling over the rights to gas beds beneath the East China Sea, while a row over Chinese-made dumplings laced with pesticide that made several people sick has become, analysts say, a symbol of Japanese alarm at China’s rise.

Officials from both sides had raised hopes of a breakthrough in the gas dispute before Hu’s visit, but a swift compromise seems unlikely.

China says onus on Dalai Lama for further talks

AGENCIES, BEIJING
Wednesday, May 07, 2008, Page 5

China said yesterday that the Dalai Lama must show sincerity if talks over Tibet were to continue, in an apparent reference to the Tibetan spiritual leader’s alleged independence ambitions.

“I want to stress that this current contact is only a beginning,” foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang (秦剛) said in the government’s first direct comments on talks between Chinese officials and two of the Dalai Lama’s envoys.

“The central government’s contact with the Dalai is sincere. So long as the Dalai’s side exerts sincerity, especially in its actions, then the contact will continue,” Qin said.

The talks, held in Shenzhen on Sunday, were the first meeting between the two sides in more than a year.

The Chinese government offered to hold the talks following sustained pressure from international leaders to reopen negotiations amid seven weeks of deadly unrest in Tibet and other parts of China with Tibetan populations.

One of the Dalai Lama’s envoys gave a positive assessment of the talks yesterday, as he stopped in Hong Kong on his way back to the Tibetan government-in-exile’s base in India.

“All very candid. We had very candid discussions,” Lodi Gyari said. “It was a good first step.”

In related news, a renowned Chinese columnist has lost his job at a magazine over commentaries on unrest in Tibet which did not conform with the official line, a watchdog group and a source with knowledge of the dismissal said yesterday.

Zhang Ping, who writes under the pen name Chang Ping, was sacked as deputy chief editor of the Southern Metropolis Weekly magazine, the Paris-based Reporters Without Borders said.

The group said in an e-mail Zhang’s departure was “because of his editorials about Tibet,” including the controversial piece “How to find the truth about Lhasa?”

“We deplore this unfair removal of a well-known member of the liberal press,” the statement said.

Zhang declined to comment when reached by telephone.

The source, requesting anonymity, confirmed the sacking but declined to provide further details.

Taiwan and the two-sided triangle
　

By Soong Hseik-wen Wang Jyh-perng 宋學文,王志鵬
Wednesday, May 07, 2008, Page 8

There has been an increased focus on how the triangular relationship between Taiwan, China and the US will develop after president-elect Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) takes office on May 20. Although warming cross-strait relations may lead to positive developments for the economy and an opportunity for more cultural exchange, there may also be spillover effects with regard to security across the Taiwan Strait, US arms sales to Taiwan and the US’ Asia-Pacific security policy.

On the eve of Taiwan’s presidential election, the US emphasized its “one China” policy and issued increasingly authoritative statements on the US’ unequivocal opposition to Taiwan holding a referendum on applying for UN membership.

But at the same time, the US strengthened its resolve in enforcing the security of the Taiwan Strait through actions such as sending the Japan-based USS Kitty Hawk carrier to the Taiwan Strait on March 17. On March 21, the US not only officially confirmed the Kitty Hawk’s movement, but also said that the USS Nimitz performed naval exercises in a region near the Taiwan Strait. Admiral Timothy Keating of the US Pacific Command said that these actions were meant as a warning against any inappropriate military maneuvers. This shows that the US was not only taking preventive military action with regard to Taiwan, but that Washington is also concerned about China’s uncertain nature. There was a strategic element to the display of military might, which aimed at reminding the two sides of the Strait to exercise self-restraint.

Although there was no instability in the Taiwan Strait after the presidential election, the US still has not withdrawn its carrier battle group from the area. According to an April 17 report in the Washington Times, the Kitty Hawk and the Nimitz will stay put until after May 20 to respond to any situations that could affect the security of the Taiwan Strait.

In addition, American Institute in Taiwan Director Stephen Young participated in the Yushan military exercise on April 22, triggering speculation on the significance of his presence. While he was ostensibly an observer, it is possible that the exercise was meant to simulate how US officials would be protected and evacuated in case of war. These events show that expectations for cross-strait relations and security across the Taiwan Strait do not necessarily match the recently popular “economic peace theory.”

The nature and hopes of the “economic peace theory” both comply with and contradict the US’ “grand strategy” toward Asia. It is also closely related to the rise of China and its effect on Asian regional security and the structure of global power allocation. On the surface, China appears to have chosen a peaceful and gradual strategy for its rise. For example, in January, Beijing published its China Modernization Report in which it mentioned its “peace dove” strategy. Its purpose is allegedly to market the diplomatic strategy for its peaceful rise, but China also seeks to prevent other countries from interfering with what it sees as its “internal affairs.”

Chinese military reports say that when vice president-elect Vincent Siew (蕭萬長) and Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) met during the Boao forum, Hu had recently inspected the navy’s Nanhai fleet and called for an all-out effort to increase combat readiness and a strengthening of the military. For its part, the US has kept the two carrier battle groups in the Taiwan Strait region on standby. Washington doesn’t say whether it is out of concern over internal developments in Taiwan, a preventative safeguard against any unusual movements from China, or to react to any action Beijing might take in response to the effect of the problems in Tibet on the Olympic Games. Neither the US nor China has made their intentions clear.

The development of cross-strait relations hinges on whether economic efforts can lead to gradual political results. With Taiwan placing its hopes on the “economic peace theory,” it remains to be seen whether there will be political costs and in what direction the situation will develop. There are many factors that will determine the direction of Taiwan’s future and the security of the Asia-Pacific region. Perhaps this is the particular nature of the competitive yet cooperative relationship that challenges Taiwan, China and the US.

Soong Hseik-wen is the director of the Graduate Institute of Strategy and International Affairs at National Chung Cheng University. Wang Jyh-perng is a student at the institute.